Turtle Head • Statistics for January

January: The Peak of the Northeast Monsoon

January is riding high on the seasonal rollercoaster with an average swell height of 1.8m (about 6ft) and a mean wave period of 7.7 seconds. The North Pacific and the South China Sea are churning under the strong northeast monsoon, and the waverider data shows that 47.1 percent of all swell arrives from the NNE, with another 25.7 percent from the NE. That makes for a lot of raw ocean energy, but it comes with an asterisk: the optimal swell window for Turtle Head is from the SSW through W, so the dominant NNE/NE component is refracted and energy is lost. Still, the outer points pick up enough wrap-around swell to produce consistent head-high plus peaks.

The wind resource is a saving grace. Offshore flow from the N through E occurs just over half the time (52 percent ideal wind), led by ENE at 29.2 percent and NE at 25.5 percent. This keeps the surface relatively clean, although the relatively short 7.7-second period can leave the waves a little lumpy and sectiony. With air temperatures averaging 23.7°C and water at 25.3°C, the tropical winter remains very comfortable. Dry conditions (0.77 mm/day) also make January one of the most reliable months to score an uncrowded, surfable session.