Conditions at Carcavelos in January
January: The Deep Winter Peak
January is the heart of the North Atlantic storm track, and Carcavelos sees its highest average swell height of the year at 2.5m (8ft), with a commanding average period of 13.1 seconds. The Waverose shows the swell direction dominated by NW (23.3%) and WNW (20.6%), with NNW adding 7.8% and W another 5.2%. That may not be the ideal S/SSW/SW/WSW attack angle for this SSW-facing beach, but the long periods mean the energy wraps and refracts toward the shore, producing solid, powerful surf. The true money directions - S, SSW, SW and WSW - combine for only around 3.4% of observations, so when they do appear on top of this base NW swell, the quality jumps significantly.
On the wind side, the ideal offshore flow through N, NNE, NE and ENE makes up a healthy chunk of the month: NNE 9.0%, NE 8.3%, ENE 8.9% and N 7.0%, while NNW also contributes 16.0% as the most common single wind direction. The stats say the wind is favorable 48% of the time. With water temperature at 14.8°C and air temps averaging 12.9°C, you need a 4/3 hooded suit and a serious regard for the power. Precipitation is generous at 2.28 mm/day. This is when Carcavelos is pumping, heavy and occasionally over barreling when the sandbars are right.
Average Spot conditions at Carcavelos in January
Swell history for January
Wind history for January
Swell quality
Analyze the groundswell consistency at Carcavelos during January. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Carcavelos for your next trip in January.
Ground swell
Ground swell by size
Wind conditions
Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Carcavelos for January. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Carcavelos.