Conditions at Machico in January
January: Heavy Water, Narrow Window
January is Machico's most powerful month on paper. Average swell height hits 2.6m (8.5ft) with a 12.9s period, and the surrounding ocean is dominated by NNW (20.6%) and NW (17.7%) groundswell. That is a lot of Atlantic energy, but only about 1% of the directional observations come from the E/ESE/SE/SSE quadrant that truly lines up on the SE-facing bay. The rest is northwesterly bomb energy that can wrap in and stir up a heavy, heaving lineup when the tide and bathymetry cooperate. Wind is the real wildcard: ideal W/WNW/NW/NNW flow is reported at 30%, while NNE/NE/ENE winds combine for over 36% and the onshore E/SE quadrant holds about 22%. Water temperature is 18.6°C, air averages 16.4°C with 1.36 mm/day of rain. If a high-pressure ridge sets in and pushes winds offshore, early January can produce memorable, long-period surf; otherwise expect powerful but messy conditions.
Average Spot conditions at Machico in January
Swell history for January
Wind history for January
Swell quality
Analyze the groundswell consistency at Machico during January. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Machico for your next trip in January.
Ground swell
Ground swell by size
Wind conditions
Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Machico for January. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Machico.