Conditions at Tonel in January
January: Peak Winter Power
January is the heart of the Portuguese winter and one of the most consistent months for quality size at Tonel. The average swell height is 2.4m (8ft) and the average period reaches 13.1s, placing the surf firmly in the powerful long-period groundswell category. Swell direction is dominated by the NW quadrant, with NW at 27.5%, WNW at 16.9% and NNW at 9.4%, while true W adds 3.8% and WSW/SW adds another 2.2%. The WNW and W components are money for this west-facing beach, but the sheer volume of NW energy means big, powerful lines wrap into the bay on most days. The limiting factor is wind. Ideal offshore conditions occur 26% of the time, mostly when high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula establishes an E/ESE or NE flow. The most common wind is actually NNW at 19%, which is a cross-shore northerly that can put a bump on the surface. Still, with average air temps of 13.8°C, water temp at 15.8°C and a storm track firing on all cylinders, January offers some of the heaviest, most rewarding surf of the year.
Average Spot conditions at Tonel in January
Swell history for January
Wind history for January
Swell quality
Analyze the groundswell consistency at Tonel during January. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Tonel for your next trip in January.
Ground swell
Ground swell by size
Wind conditions
Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Tonel for January. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Tonel.