Carcavelos - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (October - March)

The heart of the North Atlantic storm track delivers the most consistent and powerful swell to Carcavelos during these months. Average wave heights range from 1.9m in October to a peak of 2.5m in January, with periods often exceeding 12 seconds. While the dominant swell direction is from the NW quadrant — which is not directly optimal for this SSW-facing beach — the mix of longer-period groundswell and occasional storms tracking further south brings in pulses from the SW and WSW windows. When these align with the reliable northerly offshore winds (N, NNE, NE, ENE), which blow around 46-48% of the time, Carcavelos can fire with clean, lined-up waves. The wind regime is largely controlled by the Azores High pressure system and the position of the Icelandic Low; a positive NAO index typically reinforces these offshore winds. This is the prime window for serious surf at this Lisbon beach break.

Fair Surf Season (April - May, September)

Shoulder months offer a mix of smaller but still fun surf. Swell heights average 1.5-1.9m with periods dropping into the 9-11 second range. The wind remains favorable for surfing over 40% of the time, especially from the north. Spring sees a gradual decline in storm activity, while early autumn picks up again. The swell direction shifts slightly with more NW windswell, but the occasional south-swell event can still produce clean, rippable waves on the better days. Crowds are thinner and water temperatures are pleasant.

Low Surf Season (June - August)

Summer sees the Azores High sitting firm over the region, suppressing storm activity. Swell heights drop to an average of 1.3-1.4m and periods shorten to 8-9 seconds, mostly windswell from the NW and NNW. The beach becomes heavily wind-dominant, with a strong daily sea breeze from the west often ruining conditions in the afternoons. While early mornings can still offer clean 1-1.5m waves with offshore winds (N/NNE), the overall consistency and quality are notably lower. Expect peak-season crowds and smaller, groveling waves. This is the time for a longboard or to explore elsewhere.

March: Powerful Swells with More Sun

March begins the slow transition toward spring, but the swell machine is still running hot. Average wave height drops slightly to 2.2m with a still-impressive period of 12.4s. The dominant swell direction shifts further north with NW skyrocketing to 27.8% and WNW at 19.8%. This means more direct NW swell, which wraps into the bay but can be chunky due to the longer fetch. The wind remains favorable about 45% of the time, with N (19.2%) and NNW (14.4%) being the dominant offshore directions. However, the increasing daylight and sun angles can create stronger sea breezes, especially in the afternoons. Early sessions are key. March offers plenty of powerful, long-period surf, and the chance for a south-swell remains present (0.4% SSW, 1.0% SW, 2.0% WSW). Get after it.