Cozumel - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (November - February)

The heart of the Caribbean winter brings the most favorable, albeit still marginal, conditions to Cozumel’s southeast-facing shores. During these months, the North American continent cools, and the first strong cold fronts begin to push southward across the Gulf of Mexico. These systems often stall over the Yucatán Channel, generating pulses of offshore NW to NNW winds that groom the wave face. While swell from the west (O, OSO, SO) is rare, the occasional fetch from a departing norther can deliver a short-lived, clean window. The dominant E-ESE winds still blow most of the time, but the reduced frequency of onshore flow and a slightly higher likelihood of 1-1.5m waves make this the go-to period for locals with flexible schedules.

Fair Surf Season (March & October)

These transition months straddle the extremes of winter and summer. In March, the tail end of cold front season still offers a few clean, small days, but the trade winds are re-establishing their dominance. October sees the first stirrings of autumn, with a slight uptick in NW wind events as high pressure builds over the mainland. However, both months are characterized by inconsistency – expect long flat spells punctuated by brief, rideable pulses. The average wave height hovers around 0.7m with short periods, so bring your groveler and keep expectations tempered.

Low Surf Season (April - September)

From late spring through early autumn, Cozumel settles into a persistent easterly trade wind pattern. The Caribbean Sea is dominated by the Azores-Bermuda High, which pumps a steady stream of E to ESE winds – directly onshore for our SE-facing beach. Swell is almost exclusively short-period, choppy windswell generated locally, with heights rarely exceeding 0.8m. The average period drops to 6s or less, producing messy, crumbly conditions. Summer tropical storms can occasionally spin up, but they usually track too far south or north to benefit Cozumel directly. Offshore wind events (W, WNW, NW) are virtually nonexistent, with the ideal wind percentage below 1% for most months. In short, this is the time to travel elsewhere or enjoy the clear water for a paddle.

May: Summer Lull Sets In

May continues the downward trend as summer approaches. The average swell height is 0.7m, period 6.1s. The wave distribution is heavily skewed toward ESE (47.1%) and SE (25.9%) directions, with almost all waves under 1m. Wind is persistently from the E (24.8%) and ESE (30.5%) at 10-30 kph, creating steady onshore conditions. The ideal wind percentage stays at a meager 1%. Offshore winds are practically nonexistent – the combined NW and NNW wind totals barely reach 0.8%. Short-period, choppy windswell dominates, with rare pulses from the east that are ruined by onshore winds. If you score a clean waist-high wave in May, consider yourself extremely lucky.