Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

El Mongol seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (October - March)

The North Atlantic delivers its full fury during these months, with powerful extratropical cyclones churning out consistent, long-period swell from the NW to NNW that directly hits El Mongol's north-facing beach. Average wave heights range from 1.4m to 1.8m and periods frequently exceed 11s, often reaching 12-13s. The NAO index often turns negative, steering storm tracks southward and feeding the Bay of Biscay. Offshore winds from the S and SSW blow reliably 48-60% of the time, creating clean, glassy faces. This is the prime window for pumping, firing surf up to 2.5m+ on the best days.

Fair Surf Season (April - May & September)

As the North Atlantic slowly transitions, swell energy drops with average heights around 1.0-1.3m and periods settling into the 9.8-10.6s range. The wind patterns shift: the frequency of ideal offshore winds decreases to 27-33%, and cross-shore or light onshore conditions become more common. Still, late-season storm pulses in September can deliver solid NW swell with punchy, rideable waves when the synoptic setup aligns. Spring months offer fun-sized surf for groveling, but expect less consistency.

Low Surf Season (June - August)

Summer brings the Azores High dominating the eastern Atlantic, suppressing storm activity. Swell becomes small and short-period (0.9m, 8.7-9.0s on average), mostly from decaying NW swell trains. The wind pattern flips: onshore N and NE breezes become prevalent, and offshore winds from the south occur only 16-20% of the time. The result is typically choppy, messy conditions with small, weak waves. Only the occasional lucky window of S winds and a stray long-period swell can salvage a session, but generally this is a time for flat spells and groveling.

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Conditions at El Mongol in July

July: The Flat Spell

July continues the summer trough with even lower average period (8.7s) and the same tiny 0.9m average height. Swell remains trapped in the NW-NNW corridor, but most observations fall in the 0.5-1m range – barely enough for a longboard. Wind patterns worsen: ENE and NE winds combine for over 34% of the time, and offshore S winds drop to under 4%. Ideal wind plummets to just 16%. The beach is mostly flat or choppy. The rare swell pulse from a distant hurricane or a rogue low might provide a few days of fun, but consistency is non-existent. Best to save your energy for autumn.

Average Spot conditions at El Mongol in July

Swell history for July

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for July

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at El Mongol during July. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at El Mongol for your next trip in July.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at El Mongol for July. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at El Mongol.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size