Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Grumari seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (May - August)

During the Southern Hemisphere winter, Grumari comes alive as a series of strong cold fronts and low-pressure systems track across the South Atlantic, firing long-period swell from the S and SSW quadrants directly into the beach's SSE-facing exposure. Average wave heights climb to 1.2-1.3m with periods consistently above 10 seconds, often reaching 11 seconds. The South Atlantic high-pressure system strengthens, promoting offshore winds from the N and NW quadrants a majority of the time. This combination produces clean, powerful surf that is both rippable and sometimes pumping. The highest percentage of ideal wind occurs in June (55%) and July (53%), making these the prime months for consistent sessions.

Fair Surf Season (March - April & September - October)

As the seasons transition, the swell window remains active but becomes more variable. March and April still enjoy robust S and SSE swell from late-season storms, with average heights around 1.0-1.2m and periods in the 10-second range. Wind patterns become less reliable, with increasing influence of the trade winds from the E and ENE, which can degrade conditions. September and October see a similar dynamic: the South Atlantic still generates sizable groundswell, but the frequency of ideal offshore winds drops to 37% and 31% respectively. This is a time of trade-offs—when the wind cooperates, the surf can be excellent, but those windows are narrower.

Low Surf Season (November - February)

The austral summer brings a lull in Southern Ocean storm activity. Average swell heights drop to 0.9-1.0m, and the dominant swell shifts eastwards with more ESE and SE energy that struggles to wrap effectively into the cove. Periods decrease to the 9-10 second range, resulting in less powerful waves. The trade wind regime dominates, with onshore E to ENE winds blowing 20-30% of the time, chopping up the surface. Offshore winds from the N and NW are less frequent, though they do occur. February stands out with a slightly higher ideal wind percentage (47%), but the smaller swell size limits quality. It's a time for smaller boards and patience.

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Conditions at Grumari in September

September: Spring Transition – Quality Drops

September signals a transition away from winter's peak reliability. Average swell height remains respectable at 1.3m, with a period of 10.5s, but ideal wind drops sharply to 37%. Swell direction shifts: S (29.3%) and SSE (26.5%) are still leading, but SE (19.5%) and ESE (16.2%) become more significant. This easterly component reduces wave quality as the swell approaches from a less favorable angle. The wind pattern shifts decisively toward onshore: ENE (14.3%), E (13.8%), and ESE (8.0%) dominate. Offshore winds from N (4.9%) and NE (10.1%) are much less frequent. The result is that many days are blown out by strong trade winds, but when a cold front passes and winds swing to the north, the cove can still light up with excellent storm surf. It's a month of chasing windows.

Average Spot conditions at Grumari in September

Swell history for September

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for September

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Grumari during September. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Grumari for your next trip in September.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Grumari for September. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Grumari.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size