Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Hanalei Bay seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (October - March)

The North Pacific roars to life during these months, as the Aleutian Low strengthens and sends a relentless barrage of long-period NW and NNW swells toward the Hawaiian Islands. Hanalei Bay, with its exposed northern orientation, captures the full force of these powerful winter storm trains. Average swell heights hover between 2.4m and 2.7m and periods consistently climb into the 11-13-second range, delivering powerful, grinding lines that peel perfectly across the reef. The main challenge is the persistent trade winds that blow from the east and northeast, which are onshore and can chop up the surface. However, when a cold front pushes through or a low pressure stalls to the north, southerly and southwesterly breezes set up offshore conditions, glassing off the bay for epic sessions. This is Hanalei at its finest.

Fair Surf Season (April - May & September)

As the North Pacific storm track begins to weaken in April, the average swell size drops off to around 2.1m and periods shorten to about 10.5 seconds. The window for quality waves narrows, but there are still plenty of fun, rippable days, especially when the swell direction shifts more northerly. May sees a further decline in size and period, but the wind ideal percentage climbs to 40% as lighter easterly trades and occasional southerly flows create more clean windows. September marks the return of the North Pacific, with a noticeable uptick in NNW swell (7.7% of the total) and longer periods around 9.3 seconds. The wind ideal percentage jumps to 54%, the highest of any month, making September a hidden gem for groomed, medium-sized surf.

Low Surf Season (June - August)

Summer in Hanalei is defined by the strong, persistent ENE trade winds that blow directly onshore, creating messy, choppy conditions. The swell is dominated by short-period (7-9 seconds), small (1.6m) ENE windswell that barely wraps into the bay. The wind blows from onshore quadrants over 90% of the time, with ideal offshore winds from the south occurring rarely (less than 1% combined). While the ocean may look inviting, the surf quality is generally poor, with weak, sectiony waves and bumpy surfaces. Only the occasional south swell or a rare north pulse can salvage a session, but these are few and far between. This is the time to travel or explore the south shore of Kauai.

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Conditions at Hanalei Bay in March

March: Transition to Spring Swell

March marks the beginning of the transition out of peak winter, but the swell remains substantial at 2.5m average and a period of 11.8 seconds. The NNW sector still fires (17.8% of total swell), but we see a slight increase in NE (9.8%) and ENE (9.6%) swells, which are less optimal for Hanalei's orientation. The wind ideal percentage drops to 30%, as the trades strengthen with the spring sun (E at 27.9%, ENE at 23.1% – combined 51% onshore flow). The window for clean, glassy conditions narrows, but the swell is still powerful enough to make it worth a gamble. Look for days when a cold front clears the islands, bringing southerly winds (S at 1.0%, SSW at 0.9%) and a temporary improvement.

Average Spot conditions at Hanalei Bay in March

Swell history for March

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for March

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Hanalei Bay during March. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Hanalei Bay for your next trip in March.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Hanalei Bay for March. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Hanalei Bay.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size