Manazillo Bay - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (October - March)

The heart of Manazillo Bay’s surf season beats strongest from October through March. During this period, the North Pacific storm track fires up, sending long-period swell trains marching toward the Mexican coast. The average wave period hovers in the 13-14 second range, meaning powerful, lined-up waves that wrap nicely into the bay. Offshore winds from the north and east (N, NNE, NE, ENE) dominate a significant portion of the time—peaking at 51% in September and staying above 40% through March. This creates clean, glassy faces for peak performance. Swell directions are predominantly SW and WSW, which hit the west-facing beach perfectly. Expect fun to solid 1-1.5m waves on average, with occasional pumping 1.5-2.5m sets when a strong storm aligns. This is the go-to window for consistent quality.

Fair Surf Season (June - September)

Summer brings a different flavor to Manazillo. The swell height actually peaks in September at 1.7m, and the long period remains impressive, often in the 13-14 second range. However, the wind regime becomes more mixed. While the percentage of ideal offshore winds remains relatively high (41-51%), the trade winds often swing from the SSE to SW, introducing lumpy texture or onshore slop. The comfort zone shifts: mornings and evenings offer the cleanest conditions as the sea breeze picks up. Swell angles from SSW and SW still work well, but occasional S or SSE swell creeps in, reducing quality. Despite the wind challenges, when the pressure gradient sets up a northerly flow, the bay can fire with punchy, rippable waves, making summer a solid option for those willing to work the tides.

Low Surf Season (April - May)

April and May mark the most difficult months for surfing at Manazillo Bay. The average swell height is still decent (1.4-1.5m), and the period remains long (14+ seconds), but the wind statistics tell a harsh story. Ideal offshore wind frequencies drop to just 21-22%, meaning the vast majority of days are plagued by onshore winds from the SW and WSW. These directions not only create chop but also directly oppose the wave face, killing any clean steeper sections. While the occasional morning glass-off or a passing pressure system can align the stars, consistency is low. This is the time to have alternate plans—exploring other spots or just waiting for that rare window when the bay turns on for a session of fun-sized, groveling waves.

February: Steady Winter Pulse

February maintains the winter swell momentum. Average wave height remains 1.2m, period holds at 13.5s. Swell comes predominantly from the SW (43.6%) and WSW (33.3%), with a notable increase in 1-1.5m range waves—33.9% from SW and 25.7% from WSW. That means a high probability of fun, chest-to-head-high waves. The wind pattern shifts slightly: ideal offshore winds drop to 38% of the time, with stronger onshore pulses from SW and WSW gaining ground. However, the light offshore quadrants (N, NNE) are still prevalent, especially early in the day. The key is to watch for pressure gradients that tighten the flow from the north. When that happens, the bay turns on with punchy, steep drops and long open faces. Late winter often brings a few XL swells (over 2.5m) from the W, though rare; if you’re chasing serious size, february can deliver.