Neva Bay - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (October - March)

The heart of the North Pacific winter delivers the goods at Neva Bay. From October through March, the average swell height climbs above 2.5m, peaking at 3.0m in December. Long-period groundswells (10-14s average) generated by powerful extratropical storms roar in from the W and NW, wrapping nicely into this west-facing beach. Offshore wind conditions (from east) are most reliable in February and March, with ideal wind percentages reaching 28-29%. This is the prime window for pumping waves in the 1.5-2.5m range, often with clean faces and plenty of power. The combination of consistent, sizeable swell and favorable wind alignment makes these months the undisputed peak season.

Fair Surf Season (April - May & September)

As the winter storm track begins to weaken in April and May, Neva Bay transitions to a more moderate swell regime. Average heights drop to 1.7-2.2m, and periods shorten slightly to 10-11s. The dominant swell direction shifts more southerly (SW-SSW), which still has decent exposure but lacks the ideal W-NW angle. Ideal wind percentages hold around 26-30%, offering frequent windows of clean conditions. September sees a return of larger swell (2.0m average) as autumn storms start to spin up, but periods remain shorter (9.9s) and wind reliability dips to 24%. These shoulder months provide fun, rippable surf on the better days, though consistency is lower than winter.

Low Surf Season (June - August)

Summer at Neva Bay is the quietest time of year. Average swell heights bottom out at 1.3-1.4m, with periods hovering around 10s. The swell direction is dominated by SW and SSW, which are less than ideal for this west-facing spot. More critically, the wind patterns become unfavorable: a strong sea breeze component from NW and W (direct onshore) dominates, pushing ideal wind percentages down to 21-23%. Most days feature choppy, small waves in the <0.5m to 1m range. Occasional southerly groundswell can provide groveling conditions, but overall the quality is low. This is the time to explore other spots or wait for the next winter cycle.

September: Autumn Stirrings

September brings the first signs of autumn as average swell height rises to 2.0m and period improves to 9.9s. Swell direction is still dominated by SW (25.8%) and WSW (27.8%), but the increased size signals the return of larger storm swells. Wind conditions remain challenging with ideal wind at 24%, and SE and SSE winds becoming more common (11.8% and 13.5%) – these can be offshore but are often accompanied by strong gusts. The best days occur when a developing low pressure in the North Pacific sends a pulse of longer-period swell while high pressure provides a brief east wind. Waves can reach the solid 1.5-2m range on those occasions.