Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Ocean Reef Park seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (October - March)

The North Atlantic winter pattern delivers the goods to Ocean Reef Park from October through March, with average swell heights holding steady around 1.0 to 1.3 meters and periods climbing into the 7.7-8.2 second range. These months see the highest frequency of NE through ESE swell — the sweet spot for this east-facing beach. Offshore winds from the SW-WNW quadrant blow clean and consistent during this window, with ideal conditions prevailing 15-24% of the time. The climatological uptick in extratropical storms across the North Atlantic drives more powerful, longer-period groundswells that fold into punchy, rippable lines along the reef. When a high-pressure system sets up over the southeastern U.S. and a low spins off the coast, the stage is set for classic east coast surf.

Fair Surf Season (April & September)

April and September represent the shoulder periods, with average swell heights dipping to 1.0 meters and ideal wind percentages dropping to 18-19%. The dominant swell direction shifts slightly, with ENE and E pulses still feeding the beach, but the overall energy dials back as the storm tracks migrate north. Wind patterns become more variable, with an increase in onshore E to ESE breezes that mess up the face. Still, occasional cold fronts or early-season hurricanes can fire up a few good days, especially when a long-period northeast groundswell aligns with a clean offshore flow from the west.

Low Surf Season (May - August)

From May through August, Ocean Reef Park enters its summer doldrums. Average swell heights drop to 0.6-0.9 meters, and wave periods shrink to 6.2-7.4 seconds — mostly short-period, messy windswell. The dominant swell direction becomes E to ESE, which is onshore for this east-facing beach, and ideal wind percentages fall to 10-16%, with strong, consistent onshore flows from the east quadrants prevailing. The windrose shows a heavy concentration of E and ESE winds at moderate speeds, generating chop and crumbly waves. The reef does offer some shelter from the SE quadrant, but the lack of consistent, powerful groundswell makes this a time to explore other spots or stick to longboard groveling when the occasional tropical system passes by.

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Conditions at Ocean Reef Park in October

October: Prime Time Begins

October kicks off the prime surf season in earnest, with average swell height of 1.2 m and period of 8.2 seconds. Swell direction is overwhelmingly NE (34.4%) and ENE (33.6%) — the optimal window. Wave heights are solid: over 15% are 1-1.5 m, nearly 10% are 1.5-2 m, and another 5% exceed 2 m. This is when the North Atlantic storm track fires up, sending regular groundswells. Ideal wind, however, drops to 15%, the lowest of the winter half. The windrose shows strong onshore NE (14.1%) and ENE (19.9%) winds, often blowing 20-30 kph and spoiling conditions. But when the winds clock around to the NW or WNW after a cold frontal passage, the surf cleans up beautifully. October can deliver epic sessions if you time the wind shifts correctly. A negative NAO phase often favors more westerly winds and better conditions.

Average Spot conditions at Ocean Reef Park in October

Swell history for October

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for October

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Ocean Reef Park during October. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Ocean Reef Park for your next trip in October.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Ocean Reef Park for October. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Ocean Reef Park.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size