Pansukian seasonal overview
Best Surf Season (June - October)
The southwest monsoon, locally known as habagat, takes control of the Philippine archipelago from June through October. For Pansukian's southeast-facing shores, this is the golden window. During these months, the frequency of offshore winds from the west and northwest climbs significantly, reaching a peak of 39% in October. Swell heights average between 0.7m and 1.1m, with wave periods extending into the 9-10 second range – punchy and rideable. While the waves aren't huge, the clean, groomed faces allow any swell to be maximized. Occasional pulses from distant typhoons can deliver long-period groundswell from the SW, lighting up the lineup. October stands out as the prime month, combining the year's best wind statistics with a noticeable uptick in swell size and period.
Fair Surf Season (November - January)
As the northeast amihan monsoon strengthens from November onward, the swell machine cranks up. Average heights climb to 1.3-1.7m with periods of 9.5-10 seconds, offering consistent power. However, the wind turns fickle. The prevailing flow out of the NE and ENE is side-to-onshore for this SE corner, often leaving the surface choppy and bumpy. The percentage of ideal offshore winds drops to 10-22%. But when a cold front pushes through, the wind can swing to the NW or W, creating brief, clean windows of firing conditions. These transitional days are the ones to chase, when the biggest swell of the year aligns with glassy skies.
Low Surf Season (February - May)
From February through May, the monsoon transition makes for inconsistent, often frustrating surf. February and March still receive decent energy from the NE quadrant (1.3-1.6m), but onshore trades blow over 90% of the time, ruining shape. By April the swell fades to a fun-sized 1.1m, and May sees averages drop to just 0.8m with predominantly onshore winds from the E and SE – the worst possible direction. Periods hover around 9 seconds, so even when a clean pulse arrives, it's groveling conditions. This is the time to explore other activities or wait for a rare SSW swell from a late-season cyclone.
", "monthly_stats": { "january": "January: The Northeast Monsoon Roars
The height of the amihan season delivers a consistent diet of NE groundswell, with an average height of 1.7m and period of 9.5s. Over 87% of the swell arrives from the NE and ENE – directly wrapping into the bay but with a slight cross-up nature. Unfortunately, the wind is almost always a problem. Dominating from the NE (26%) and ENE (29%), it blows side-onshore, leaving waves lumpy and disorganized. Only 10% of the time do offshore winds from the west or northwest grace the lineup. Those rare days, often tied to a passing front, produce pumping 1.5-2.5m sets with long, clean walls. Patience and a keen eye on the wind forecast are essential.
", "february": "February: Trade Winds Hammer the Coast
February mirrors January but with a slight drop in overall energy – average swell height 1.6m, period 9.4s. Swell direction is almost exclusively NE (49%) and ENE (43%), keeping the zone active but rarely clean. The trade wind machine is in full effect, with NE and ENE winds blowing at 10-30kph over 55% of the time. Ideal offshore wind conditions drop to a paltry 7%. The wave quality is mostly choppy and messy, with a bumpy surface that makes even 2m sets hard to enjoy. If you can find a morning glass-off or a rare westerly wind shift, the reward is a powerful, long-period wave – but those moments are fleeting.
", "march": "March: Transitioning Still Bumpy
March sees the northeast monsoon begin to wane, but it doesn't go quietly. Average swell height drops to 1.3m, while period holds at 9.5s. The swell direction shifts even more eastward – 56% from the ENE, 40% from the NE. Wind remains stubbornly onshore from the ENE (30%), E (21%), and NE (20%). Offshore wind frequency is only 9%, so clean conditions are scarce. The mix of moderate swell and persistent onshore flow produces average, punchy waves with a lot of chop. Occasionally, a late-season front will drag the wind to the NW, offering a few hours of smooth, rippable surf in the 1-1.5m range – but you have to be ready to move.
", "april": "April: Spring Lull Begins
April marks the transition into the spring doldrums. Swell averages 1.1m with a period of 9.4s – still rideable but losing steam. The swell becomes predominantly ENE (66%), with some NE (27%). Wind patterns start to rotate more southward, with the dominant direction becoming E (25%) and ENE (22%), but also a notable increase in ESE (17%) and SE (8%) which are direct onshore for the SE-facing beach. Ideal offshore wind rises slightly to 14%, but the trade-off is a significant drop in wave size. Fun-sized waves in the 0.5-1m range dominate 40% of the time. Look for early mornings with lighter winds to score clean, rippable peaks.
", "may": "May: Small and Onshore
May delivers the smallest average swell of the year at 0.8m, with period dropping to 9.1s. The swell direction remains locked in the ENE (67%) and E (14%). The wind pattern shifts further into the SE quadrant – ESE (20%), SE (18%), E (16%) – all of which are onshore or directly side-shore. Offshore wind frequency holds at 13%, but the swell rarely gets above 1m. Most days are micro and groveling, with weak, short-period waves. When the rare westerly breeze does appear, the 0.5-1m sets become clean and fun, but don't expect any size. This month is best suited for longboarders or beginners.
", "june": "June: Southwest Monsoon Arrives
June signals the change to the habagat season. While average swell hits a low of 0.7m and period drops to 8.5s, the wind pattern begins to rotate favorably. Dominant swell is still from the ENE (49%) and E (28%), but we start seeing contributions from the W (2.3%) and WSW (1.8%). Wind from the SE (19%), SSE (16%), and ESE (14%) still rules, but the offshore quadrant (W, WNW, NW) increases to about 17% combined. The wave quality remains choppy much of the time, but when the wind goes west, the tiny swell becomes surprisingly punchy. It's the start of the clean but small window.
", "july": "July: Best Wind, Smallest Waves
July sees the frequency of ideal offshore wind climb to 26%, yet the swell barely responds – averaging just 0.7m with an 8.4s period. Swell direction becomes more mixed: still ENE (35%) and E (23%) but also WSW (6.5%), W (6.1%), and SW (4
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Conditions at Pansukian in November
Average Spot conditions at Pansukian in November
Swell history for November
Wind history for November
Swell quality
Analyze the groundswell consistency at Pansukian during November. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Pansukian for your next trip in November.
Ground swell
Ground swell by size
Wind conditions
Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Pansukian for November. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Pansukian.
