Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Playa Madrono seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (April - July)

The heart of the southern hemisphere swell window aligns perfectly with the onset of the dry season’s tail end, bringing a consistent diet of SSW swells that march straight into Playa Madrono’s south-facing beach. During these months, the swell direction is almost exclusively from the optimal SSW-SW quadrants, with wave heights averaging around 1.1m and periods regularly exceeding 13 seconds – delivering powerful, long-period groundswells that groom the lineup. Offshore winds from the north and northeast blow at moderate speeds 30-50% of the time, creating clean, glassy faces on the best days. April stands out with 67% ideal wind, while July holds steady at 60%, making these a prime window for consistent, high-quality surf.

Fair Surf Season (November - March)

As the Intertropical Convergence Zone begins its migration, the months from November through March bring a mix of swell sources. While the dominant southern swell persists, a significant amount of north-northeasterly swell also appears, generated by cold fronts and high-latitude storms in the North Atlantic. This northern energy wraps into the bay, producing fun-sized waves in the 0.5-1.5m range, often with periods in the 9-12 second band. The trade winds strengthen significantly during this period, with offshore N to NNE winds blowing at 20-40kph over 70% of the time in December and January, providing some of the cleanest conditions of the year. However, the swell direction is less consistent, and days with pure SSW swell are interspersed with north-dominant pulses that can be less predictable. Still, when the right combination of a southern swell and light offshore wind emerges, the surf turns pumping and rippable.

Low Surf Season (August - October)

The deepest part of the rainy season, from August through October, brings challenging conditions for surfers chasing quality. Although the SSW swell engine continues to churn almost non-stop – with 93-97% of the wave energy arriving from the south – the wind patterns become highly unfavourable. The southwest monsoon and frequent onshore flow from the SW, WSW, and W quadrants dominate, pushing the offshore wind percentage down to just 33-50%. This results in a high incidence of choppy, wind-affected surf, with strong onshore winds often exceeding 20kph. The wave periods remain long (13+ seconds), so the swell itself has power, but conditions are rarely clean. September and October are the toughest months, with ideal wind dropping to 37% and 33% respectively. For the dedicated surfer, occasional early-morning windows with lighter northerly breezes can salvage a session, but overall this is a low season for clean, well-shaped waves at Playa Madrono.

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Conditions at Playa Madrono in May

May: Southern Swell Dominance

May sees a complete takeover by southern swell: 85.9% of the energy comes from SSW, with a further 7.4% from SW. The average period peaks at 14.1 seconds, meaning every wave carries real power. Wave heights are solid: 45.1% in the 1-1.5m range and 5.3% in the 1.5-2m range, offering plenty of grunt. However, the wind picture becomes more mixed. Offshore wind from N, NNE, and NNW drops to about 31% combined, while onshore SW and WSW winds increase to 22.3%. The ideal wind percentage is 53% – still respectable. Expect clean mornings when the land breeze kicks in, but afternoons often turn bumpy with onshore flow. This month rewards early sessions with long-period, lined-up swell under light offshore conditions.

Average Spot conditions at Playa Madrono in May

Swell history for May

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for May

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Playa Madrono during May. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Playa Madrono for your next trip in May.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Playa Madrono for May. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Playa Madrono.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size