Raglan seasonal overview
Best Surf Season (February - May)
As autumn settles in, the Tasman Sea comes alive with a steady diet of long-period swell from the west and southwest. This is prime time for Raglan. The average wave height builds from 1.6m to 2.2m with periods consistently over 12 seconds, delivering powerful, punchy waves. Meanwhile, offshore winds from the west-southwest through south-southwest blow cleanly across the lineup 29-34% of the time, setting up classic peeling left-handers at the Point. This is when the stars align for consistent, rippable surf day after day.
Fair Surf Season (June - September)
Winter unleashes the full force of the Southern Ocean, with average swell heights holding steady at 2.2m and periods around 12-12.5 seconds. The swell is definitely pumping, but the trade-off comes in the form of increased onshore winds. Ideal offshore wind percentages drop to between 18-26%, meaning you'll have to pick your windows carefully. When a high-pressure system moves in from the south, the wind swings offshore and the Point lights up with XXL waves. But more often than not, you'll be dealing with strong westerly or northwesterly winds that chop up the lineup. Patience and a keen eye on the forecast are key.
Low Surf Season (October - January)
Spring and early summer bring a shift in the wind regime. The percentage of offshore wind plummets to a low of 16-19% from October through December and only begins to recover in January. While the swell is still considerable in October (2.2m average), it's frequently blown out by westerly and northwesterly winds. As we move into November and December, the average swell height drops to around 1.7-1.9m and the wave period shortens to 11 seconds or so. This is the time for smaller boards and fun, groveling waves at the Point when the wind cooperates, which isn't often. January sees a slight pickup in offshore winds (25%) and the swell period rebounds to 11.7s, offering occasional gems between the summer doldrums.
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Conditions at Raglan in May
May: Big Swells and Patchy Windows
May signals the arrival of winter's raw energy. Swell jumps to 2.2m average with a still-healthy period of 12.5 seconds. The dominant swell directions shift slightly to WSW (28.8%) and SW (22.5%), alongside a growing presence of groundswell from W and WNW. These longer-period swells pack a punch. However, ideal offshore wind drops to 29% as stronger weather systems start rolling through. When a high parks over the South Island, light SSW breezes create epic conditions on the bigger days. But be ready for more days with onshore NW or W winds that blow out the lineup. Still, when it's on, you get pumping 2m+ sets with plenty of open faces to carve.
Average Spot conditions at Raglan in May
Swell history for May
Wind history for May
Swell quality
Analyze the groundswell consistency at Raglan during May. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Raglan for your next trip in May.
Ground swell
Ground swell by size
Wind conditions
Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Raglan for May. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Raglan.
