Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Scar Reef seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (May - October)

During the heart of the Indonesian dry season, the Indian Ocean roars to life with consistent, long-period groundswells sent northward from the Roaring Forties and polar lows. While Scar Reef faces northwest—ideally suited for swell from the north and west—the data reveals that the dominant swell direction is actually from the SSW to SW. This may seem counterintuitive, but these southerly swells wrap around the island and refract into the reef with remarkable power and length. Combined with nearly 90% offshore wind conditions (blowing from the SSE to SSW), the result is a prolonged stretch of clean, groomed waves that can range from fun, rippable 1–1.5m faces to heavier 1.5–2.5m sets. Average wave periods hover around 14–14.5 seconds, delivering the kind of juice that makes the reef come alive. This is the window when Scar Reef truly earns its reputation.

Fair Surf Season (March - April & November)

The transition months between the monsoon extremes bring a mix of conditions. March and April see the southeast trades strengthening and the offshore wind percentage climbing from 44% to 69%, while the groundswell remains present but slightly less consistent. Swell heights average a solid 1.2–1.3m with periods around 13–14 seconds, still capable of producing punchy, rideable waves—especially on days when the wind lines up. November marks the return of the wet season, with ideal wind dropping to 81% and swell heights easing back to 1.3m. Expect a blend of fun-sized waves and occasional background noise. Patience and careful tide timing can yield unexpected gems during these shoulder months.

Low Surf Season (December - February)

The northwest monsoon exerts its grip over the region from December through February, bringing less favorable wind patterns and a reduction in overall swell quality. Offshore wind percentages fall to 27–48%, and the average swell height dips to 1.3m with periods shortening to 12.6–12.8 seconds. While the dominant swell direction remains SSW/SW, the wind—often blowing from the north or northeast—blows onshore for much of the time, putting a chop on the wave face and making conditions less inviting. Small, fun-sized waves can still be found, especially on lighter wind days, but this is the least reliable period. For those chasing clean, groomed lines, the low season is best avoided unless you're willing to gamble on a weather window.

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Conditions at Scar Reef in July

July: Winter Peak

July represents the climatological peak of the swell season. The average swell height reaches 1.7m with a period of 14.4 seconds—the highest of the year. Swell direction is dominated by SSW (71.0%), with significant S (21.8%) influence. Wind conditions are ideal 88% of the time, with the SSE (54.2%) stealing the show—over half of all wind measurements come from this perfect offshore direction. This combination creates consistently firing conditions at Scar Reef. The 1.5–2.5m range accounts for a substantial portion (38.5% + 13.2%), meaning the reef is often pumping. Expect confident, long-period waves wrapping into the reef, groomed by a steady offshore flow. July is arguably the month to target for the best chance of epic waves.

Average Spot conditions at Scar Reef in July

Swell history for July

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for July

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Scar Reef during July. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Scar Reef for your next trip in July.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Scar Reef for July. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Scar Reef.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size