Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

State's Avenue seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (October - March)

The North Atlantic roars to life during these months, with average swell heights holding steady between 1.3m and 1.4m and periods averaging 7.0-7.7 seconds. A powerful climatological uptick in extratropical storm activity drives consistent, punchy swell from the S through WSW windows. Meanwhile, offshore winds from the NW quadrant dominate, blowing clean and groomed lines onto the SSE-facing beach. December and January see the highest frequency of ideal wind (28%), often paired with crisp high pressure over the continent. When the right combination aligns, long-period groundswell wraps in with sunny skies and light offshore breezes -- that is when State's Avenue truly comes alive.

Fair Surf Season (April - May, September)

Transition months bring a mixed bag. April and May still see a notable presence of S and SSW swell (up to 16.9% and 17.9% respectively), but average wave heights dip slightly to 1.1-1.2m and periods hover around 7.2-7.3s. Offshore wind percentages drop to the low 20s, and onshore SSW breezes become more frequent, especially in the afternoon. September offers a glimmer of hope as longer periods return (8.4s average) and the first autumn cold fronts begin to stir the ocean. However, swell directions shift more easterly, reducing the number of truly clean days. These months reward patience and a willingness to pick the windows when synoptic patterns align.

Low Surf Season (June - August)

Summer settles in with average wave heights bottoming out at 0.9m and short, weak periods averaging 7.0s. The dominant swell comes from the SSE and S, which, while large in percentage, are often accompanied by onshore SSW winds that tear up the surface. Ideal wind drops to a meager 14-16% during these months, and the persistent thermal low over the interior pumps in afternoon sea breezes from the SW. The result is generally small, choppy conditions best suited for a log or a groveler. Early mornings can occasionally offer clean, fun-sized waves before the wind shifts, but consistent quality is hard to come by.

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Conditions at State's Avenue in January

January: Midwinter Muscle

The North Atlantic is in full swing, delivering an average swell height of 1.4m with a period of 7.0s. Swell from the S (9.7%) and SSW (8.7%) provides the most consistent source of rideable waves, while secondary pulses from the NW quadrant add variety. Offshore winds blow 28% of the time, with WNW (16.1%) and NW (13.9%) dominating the wind rose. These northerly quadrants keep the face clean and hollow. Expect plenty of punchy, chest-to-head-high sets during the stronger pulses, with the occasional bigger day when the period pushes past 10 seconds. The high pressure systems that park over the continent frequently link up with low-pressure exits, creating prime surfing windows that can last several days.

Average Spot conditions at State's Avenue in January

Swell history for January

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for January

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at State's Avenue during January. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at State's Avenue for your next trip in January.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at State's Avenue for January. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at State's Avenue.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size