Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Thorli seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (October – March)

The North Atlantic roars to life during these months, with average swell heights consistently above 2.4m and long periods averaging 9.8 to 11.7 seconds. Dominant swell directions from the SW, SSW, and S quadrants pound the Icelandic coast, and when a southwest wind sets in – the golden offshore here – Thorli transforms into a powerful, long-period playground. The climatological ramping up of extratropical cyclones across the North Atlantic drives this surge, bringing pumping head-high to double-overhead sets. Still, the window of perfect conditions is narrow: ideal wind only blows 11–14% of the time, so patience and a keen eye on synoptic charts are crucial to score the best days. When the low-pressure systems align with a stable high to the west, expect epic, heavy waves in the 1.5–2.5m range with periods over 10s.

Fair Surf Season (April – June & September)

As the North Atlantic storm track begins to weaken in spring, Thorli sees a gradual drop in average swell height, from 2.4m in April down to 1.5m by June. Wave periods also shorten, falling from 9.7s to 8.8s – still rideable, but lacking the raw power of winter. However, the percentage of ideal offshore wind rises to 19–38%, offering more frequent clean sessions. Swell directions remain dominated by the SW through SSE quadrants, with a notable increase in SE and SSE swell, which can wrap in nicely. The wave heights during this period are mostly in the fun-sized 0.5–1.5m range, perfect for groveling and turning tricks. September marks a transition month, with average swell climbing back to 2.1m and periods to 9.4s, while ideal wind drops to 22% – a taste of the coming winter.

Low Surf Season (July – August)

July and August represent the true summer lull for Thorli. Average swell heights bottom out at 1.4–1.5m, and wave periods stagnate around 8.2–8.5s – marginal for any real power. The swell is dominated by shorter-period windswell from the SW through SSE quadrant, mostly under 1m. On the bright side, offshore winds blow a generous 34–39% of the time, making for cleaner but smaller conditions. Expect micro to small, fun-sized waves (<0.5–1m) on most days. Occasionally a remnant groundswell from a distant storm can push in, but those are rare. This is the season for longboard cruises and fin-tuning your flow, not for charging.

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Conditions at Thorli in March

March: Transitional Muscle and Improved Windows

March sees a slight drop in average swell height to 3.2m and period to 10.9s, but the North Atlantic still packs a punch. Swell continues to arrive from SW (8.2%), SSW (5.1%), and S (4.5%) as the dominant directions. The wind patterns show a modest improvement in the ideal offshore percentage, up to 14% – the best of the winter months. Wind from NE (11.2%) and NNE (10.5%) still dominates, but the frequency of strong onshore gusts is decreasing. This is the month where the first signs of spring help to stabilize the atmosphere. Look for post-cold front cleans: a crisp NW wind behind a low-pressure system that leaves behind long-period SW swell in the 2–2.5m range, offering powerful and rippable conditions.

Average Spot conditions at Thorli in March

Swell history for March

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for March

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Thorli during March. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Thorli for your next trip in March.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Thorli for March. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Thorli.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size