Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Turtle Head seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (June - September)

The heart of the southwest monsoon brings life to Turtle Head. June through September sees a dramatic shift in swell direction as powerful SW and WSW groundswells pulse up from deep low-pressure systems in the Indian Ocean. While the wind regime during these months is dominated by onshore S-SW flows, frequent windows of clean offshore E-NE winds—especially in July and September—create the finest rideable conditions. Average wave heights hover in the 1.0-1.3m range with periods averaging 6.8-7.5s, delivering punchy, rippable walls when the pieces align. July stands out with the highest concentration of ideal swell directions, while September offers the best wind-to-swell ratio. This is the prime window for worthy waves at Turtle Head.

Fair Surf Season (May, October)

May and October act as transitional bookends. May kicks off the southwest monsoon but still retains weak offshore wind potential from the north quadrant—25% ideal wind—allowing some of the building SW swell to be harnessed. October sees a sharp jump in offshore wind frequency (65% ideal) as the northeast monsoon regains strength, but the swell direction shifts back to NNE-NE, leaving only a faint SW component. During these months, surfers need patience and a keen eye on the charts to catch the rare combination of decent swell and clean offshore flow.

Low Surf Season (November - April)

From November through April, the northeast monsoon dominates the Philippines. While this brings a high percentage of offshore winds from the E-NNE quadrant (often 45-65%), the swell is overwhelmingly sourced from the NNE and NE quadrants. For a West-Southwest-facing beach like Turtle Head, these northerly swells are blocked or severely shadowed by the surrounding coastline, resulting in minimal, often flat, conditions. Despite average heights of 1.5-2.2m on the open ocean, very little of that energy wraps into the spot. The few days where a trickle of SW or W swell sneaks in become the rare gems, but overall, this period is best left for equipment maintenance or exploring other breaks.

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Conditions at Turtle Head in October

October: Northeast Monsoon Regains Control, Wind Improves

October sees a decisive shift as the northeast monsoon takes over. Ideal wind jumps to 65% of the time, with NE winds dominating at 32%—making the water glassy. However, the swell direction flips back to NNE (46%) and NE (20%), leaving optimal SW-W swell only around 6.6% of the total. The average height remains solid at 1.7m and period at 7.9s, but most of that power is from the wrong direction. The rare southern groundswell can still arrive, producing fun 1-1.5m waves on an offshore wind. But overall, expect more flat days than rideable ones. The 'shoulder' season demands careful chart watching.

Average Spot conditions at Turtle Head in October

Swell history for October

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for October

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Turtle Head during October. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Turtle Head for your next trip in October.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Turtle Head for October. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Turtle Head.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size