Ferrugem • Statistics for January

January: Midsummer Trade-Wind Grind

January is classic Brazilian high summer. Water temperature peaks at 25.5°C, air temperature averages 23.7°C, and precipitation is high at 6.92 mm/day, usually as afternoon thunderstorms. The surf is a reflection of this tropical regime: average swell height is 4ft (1.2m) and the period is a modest 8.0s. Swell direction is dominated by the E quadrant, with E at 27.4%, ESE at 24.4%, ENE at 20.0% and SE at 14.8%. That is exactly Ferrugem's favorable swell window, but the energy is mostly short-period windswell in the 2-3ft (0.5-1m) and 3-5ft (1-1.5m) classes, with only about 15% of waves reaching 5ft (1.5m) or larger.

The wind story is less kind. Ideal surf wind occurs just 40% of the time. NNE (16.5%) and NE (13.1%) dominate, mostly cross-shore to mildly onshore, while the true offshore W/WSW/WNW/NW quadrant makes up only a small fraction of readings. Expect glassy dawn patrols, then bumpy, groveling conditions once the sea breeze kicks in. If a cold front can push far enough north to set up NW flow, the E/ESE swell turns fun and rippable - otherwise January is about warm water, small waves and staying loose.