Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Backdoor seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (October - March)

The North Pacific roars to life as the Aleutian Low strengthens, sending a relentless parade of NW to NNW groundswells directly into the northwest-facing reef at Backdoor. During these months, average swell heights hover in the 2.4m to 2.7m range with long periods of 11-13 seconds, often delivering pumping, barreling waves that are the stuff of legend. The trade wind pattern also favours offshore conditions more frequently, with the easterly and southeasterly flow (E, ESE, SE) blowing cleanly across the lineup, keeping the wave faces smooth and the tubes hollow. January, February, and December are the peak months, with ideal wind frequencies reaching 24-27% – but even on days with some cross-shore influence, the sheer power of the swell makes for memorable sessions.

Fair Surf Season (April & September)

April and September represent the transition windows. In April, the swell engine begins to quiet down – average heights drop to 2.2m and periods shorten to 10.3s, but there are still occasional fun, rippable waves in the 1.5-2.5m range from the ENE and NE quadrants. The wind becomes more marginal: easterly trades still dominate, but ideal offshore percentages slip to 16%. September sees a similar pattern, with average heights around 1.7m but periods recovering to 9.2s. The trade winds strengthen in September, boosting the ideal window to 23%, making for some clean, punchy sessions on the better days. These months require a keen eye on the forecast to catch the windows when a good pulse aligns with calm morning trades.

Low Surf Season (May - August)

Summer slams the brakes on the North Pacific storm track. From May through August, average swell heights bottom out at 1.6-1.8m and periods drop to 7.8-9.2s. The swell direction rotates almost exclusively to the E and ENE, which are far from ideal for Backdoor's northwest exposure – these waves are short-period, choppy, and lack the power to wrap in properly. To make matters worse, the trade winds howl, with ideal offshore conditions occurring only 9-21% of the time. July is the absolute low point, with a pitiful 9% ideal wind and the smallest, weakest swell of the year. While there might be the odd fun-size, groveling session on a south wind day, this is primarily a time to save your energy for other spots or wait for the first autumn storms.

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Conditions at Backdoor in January

January: Peak Winter Fury

The North Atlantic analogue here is spot-on: January is peak season for Backdoor. The average swell height is a hefty 2.7m and the average period 12.8s, meaning frequent heavy, pumping sets that challenge even the best. The swell distribution tells the story: NNW and NW directions account for over 25% of all swell energy, with a significant portion in the 2-2.5m and over 2.5m categories – this is the XL stuff. The wind is ideal a solid 27% of the time, primarily from the E and ESE quadrants. ENE (17.8%) and E (23.1%) winds dominate, but remember that for a NW-facing reef, only winds from E around to S are truly offshore. The steady easterly trades often clock into a more favourable ESE (7%) or SE (2.2%) direction, delivering glassy morning conditions. When the Aleutian Low pumps out a long-period NW swell and the trades ease to 10-20kph from the SE, Backdoor becomes a true world-class barrel.

Average Spot conditions at Backdoor in January

Swell history for January

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for January

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Backdoor during January. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Backdoor for your next trip in January.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Backdoor for January. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Backdoor.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size