Cabo de San Antonio - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (October - March)

As the North Atlantic storm track fires up, Cabo de San Antonio sees a welcome increase in average swell heights to around 1.1-1.2m. While the predominant swell direction remains from the northeast and east quadrant due to persistent trade winds, the occasional frontal passage can swing winds into a favorable offshore quadrant (N, NNE, NE, NNW), cleaning up the waves. South and southwest swells, though rare, are most likely during this period as old lows track across the Gulf or from distant Southern Hemisphere storms. The average period of 6-7 seconds keeps waves punchy and rideable, but don't expect long-period groundswells often. When the alignment is right, these months offer the best chance for quality surf at this south-facing reef.

Fair Surf Season (April, September)

Transitional months. April sees a drop in average height to 0.9m as the winter pattern weakens. Trade winds remain strong from the east, making offshore conditions less frequent. September, on the fringe of hurricane season, can bring sudden pulses of south to southwest swell from tropical systems in the Gulf, but also the risk of messy onshore winds. Wave periods are short, averaging 6 seconds, so conditions are usually small and choppy, but occasional clean small waves can be found.

Low Surf Season (May - August)

The summer doldrums settle in with average swell heights bottoming out at 0.6-0.7m and periods around 6-7 seconds. The dominant easterly trade winds (E, ESE, SE) blow almost constantly, creating onshore conditions that wreck what little wave energy exists. South swell events are extremely scarce (less than 1% occurrence). During this period, the spot is mostly flat or blown out, making it a poor time for surfing. The only hope is a fleeting tropical disturbance that might bring rare south swell and light winds, but reliability is extremely low.

September: Hurricane Season Sparks Possibilities

September begins the transition out of the summer doldrums. Average swell height inches up to 0.7m, but the average period drops to 5.8s, the lowest of the year. Swell directions broaden: while ESE (21.3%) and E (17.7%) still lead, south-southwest swell contributions increase to 2.8% and pure south swell to 1.8%. This is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico can send powerful south to southwest swells into Cabo de San Antonio. These events can push wave heights into the pumping range (1.5-2.5m) with long periods, offering the best surf of the year – albeit accompanied by fickle onshore winds. Wind conditions are still mostly onshore (E 21.7%, ENE 17.4%), with only 16% offshore. The dominant wind from the east to southeast creates messy conditions on normal days. September is a month of extremes: either flat and blown out, or all-time pumping from a hurricane. Patience and a good forecast are essential.