Car-rille - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (November - January)

The heart of winter brings the most consistent and quality surf to Car-rille. As the Siberian High strengthens, the North Pacific storm track directs long-period groundswells from the NW and WNW quadrants into the Philippines. December and January peak with average swell heights around 0.7-0.8m and periods of 7.8-8.1s, offering punchy, rideable waves. The trade winds slacken, and offshore flow from the west-northwest (WNW to SW) prevails 25-30% of the time, cleaning up the lineups. While the dominant swell direction remains NNW, the smaller but significant contributions from the western quadrants (WSW through NW) produce the best waves when combined with light offshore breezes.

Fair Surf Season (February - March & October)

February and March see a gradual decline in swell energy as the winter storm track shifts north. Averages drop to 0.5-0.6m with periods of 6.4-7.2s, meaning waves become more average and less powerful. The percentage of ideal offshore wind falls to 12-19%, and the window for clean conditions narrows. October marks the return of stronger swells (0.7m, 7.7s) as extratropical storms in the North Pacific gear up, but the wind regime is more unpredictable—offshore flow occurs only 23% of the time. These shoulder months are all about timing: pick a day with a solid W to NW swell and morning offshore winds from the ENE to SE to score fun, rippable waves.

Low Surf Season (April - September)

From April through September, the monsoon rhythm dominates. The SW monsoon (Habagat) brings persistent onshore winds from the SW to WSW, blowing directly into the west-facing beach and ruining wave quality. Average swell heights hover around a meager 0.3-0.6m with periods of 5.5-7.2s, yielding mostly small, choppy, and messy conditions. The percentage of ideal offshore wind falls to a low of 5% in May and only reaches 18% in August. While occasional pulses of SW groundswell appear (especially in June and July), the nearly constant onshore flow means most days are unsurfable. The best chance for a ride comes during a passing tropical storm or a rare break in the monsoon, but that is the exception, not the rule.

December: Winter Peak

December is the crown jewel of Car-rille's surf calendar. Average swell height peaks at 0.8m and period at 8.1s—powerful, long period waves. The swell direction is overwhelmingly NNW (90.8%), but the presence of NW (0.7%) and other western components, plus the highest percentage of 1-1.5m swell (19.1% from NNW and 0.4% from N) and even 1.5-2m sets (6.1% from NNW), means the beach receives consistent, rideable energy. Offshore wind occurs 30% of the time, with N winds (21.7%) often providing clean, glassy mornings. When a strong NW groundswell aligns with offshore flow, the waves become pumping, heavy, firing in the 1.5-2.5m range. December is the month for experienced surfers to score the best waves of the year. Don’t miss it.