Car-rille - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (November - January)

The heart of winter brings the most consistent and quality surf to Car-rille. As the Siberian High strengthens, the North Pacific storm track directs long-period groundswells from the NW and WNW quadrants into the Philippines. December and January peak with average swell heights around 0.7-0.8m and periods of 7.8-8.1s, offering punchy, rideable waves. The trade winds slacken, and offshore flow from the west-northwest (WNW to SW) prevails 25-30% of the time, cleaning up the lineups. While the dominant swell direction remains NNW, the smaller but significant contributions from the western quadrants (WSW through NW) produce the best waves when combined with light offshore breezes.

Fair Surf Season (February - March & October)

February and March see a gradual decline in swell energy as the winter storm track shifts north. Averages drop to 0.5-0.6m with periods of 6.4-7.2s, meaning waves become more average and less powerful. The percentage of ideal offshore wind falls to 12-19%, and the window for clean conditions narrows. October marks the return of stronger swells (0.7m, 7.7s) as extratropical storms in the North Pacific gear up, but the wind regime is more unpredictable—offshore flow occurs only 23% of the time. These shoulder months are all about timing: pick a day with a solid W to NW swell and morning offshore winds from the ENE to SE to score fun, rippable waves.

Low Surf Season (April - September)

From April through September, the monsoon rhythm dominates. The SW monsoon (Habagat) brings persistent onshore winds from the SW to WSW, blowing directly into the west-facing beach and ruining wave quality. Average swell heights hover around a meager 0.3-0.6m with periods of 5.5-7.2s, yielding mostly small, choppy, and messy conditions. The percentage of ideal offshore wind falls to a low of 5% in May and only reaches 18% in August. While occasional pulses of SW groundswell appear (especially in June and July), the nearly constant onshore flow means most days are unsurfable. The best chance for a ride comes during a passing tropical storm or a rare break in the monsoon, but that is the exception, not the rule.

January: Mid-Winter Pulse

January sits at the apex of the northwest Pacific swell window. The average swell height is 0.7m with a period of 7.8s, placing waves in the fun, good, solid category when they arrive from the right direction. However, a staggering 91% of the swell comes from the NNW—a direction that is suboptimal for the west-facing beach. The relatively small contributions from NW (0.6%) and W (0.1%) are the ones to watch. Wind is offshore (from the SW, WSW, W, or WNW) 25% of the time, with a large portion of N winds (20.6%) that are cross-onshore. The key is a strong NW groundswell combined with light to moderate offshore flow from the west. When that happens, the 1-1.5m sets with 8s+ period become rippable and clean.