Cayo Coco - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (October - March)

Cayo Coco's north-facing coastline is a tricky proposition for surfers. The 'best' window falls between October and March, when the North Atlantic begins to stir. However, even during these months, the dominant swell direction remains from the E to ENE quadrant, generated by the persistent trade winds. This means the vast majority of waves arrive as short-period, messy windswell under onshore conditions. The true 'best' is relative: a slight increase in the frequency of N, NNO, and NNW swell pulses occurs as cold fronts sweep across the Gulf, offering rare windows of rideable, if still short-period, surf. Offshore wind from the S to SSW quadrant is exceedingly rare, with only 1-2% of the time being ideal. When the stars align, you can score small, punchy waves in the 0.5-1.5m range, but patience is paramount.

Fair Surf Season (April - May, September)

During April, May, and September, the trade wind regime tightens its grip. Swell heights drop slightly and periods remain in the choppy 3-second range. The N component of swell almost vanishes, leaving only weak E-ENE energy. While the wind patterns offer a marginal increase in S to SSW flow during these transition months, it's still less than 2% of the time. Surfable waves are rare and often below 0.5m. These months are best reserved for travel days or exploring other activities.

Low Surf Season (June - August)

Summer in Cayo Coco is a true surf desert. The average swell height plummets to 0.5-0.6m, and the wave period hovers around a dismal 3.0s. Swell direction is overwhelmingly from the East - over 60% in June and nearly 80% in July - which means the spot is completely shadowed. North quadrant swell is virtually non-existent. The wind blows relentlessly from the E-ESE, creating pure onshore chop. Offshore winds from the south are a statistical anomaly. Surfing is essentially not viable; this is the nadir of the yearly season.

March: Transition Stalls

March sees the beginning of the seasonal transition but conditions remain marginal. The average wave period is still a low 3.3s and average height 0.7m. N-NNW swell fractions hold around 15%, a slight drop from winter. E and ENE swells together account for nearly 59% of all wave energy, most of it under 1m. Wind patterns are nearly identical to February: E (25.4%) and ENE (22.5%) dominate, with a slight increase in SE flow (5.3%). S-SSW offshore winds remain at a paltry 2% frequency. The window for quality surf is extremely narrow – perhaps a day or two a month when a dying cold front leaves behind a N swell and light southerly winds. Otherwise, it's small and choppy.