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Cox Bay - surf spot statistics
Cox Bay seasonal overview
Best Surf Season (October - March)
The winter months bring consistent, powerful swell from the North Pacific, with average heights easily reaching the 2.0-2.6m range and long periods of 12-13 seconds. The Aleutian Low pumps out a steady stream of WNW to SW groundswell that hits Cox Bay's west-facing beach perfectly. Offshore winds from the east (E, ENE, ESE) blow clean 34-41% of the time, creating glassy conditions on the best days. This is prime time for pumping, firing waves in the 1.5-2.5m range, with occasional XL days pushing over 2.5m that demand respect.
Fair Surf Season (April & September)
As the seasons transition, the North Pacific storm track weakens in April and reawakens in September. Average swell drops to 1.9m in April and 1.5m in September, but long-period groundswell (11-12s) still arrives from the W and WSW. Offshore wind frequency sits around 29-30%, meaning clean windows are less predictable but still rewarding when they align. Expect fun, rippable waves in the 1-1.5m range with occasional solid sets reaching 2m.
Low Surf Season (May - August)
The summer lull takes hold from May through August, with average swell heights dwindling to a paltry 1.2-1.5m and periods holding steady around 11.4s. The swell direction is dominated by W and WSW, but these waves are often small, fun-sized or even micro (<0.5m) during flat spells. Offshore wind conditions are the worst of the year, with ideal winds occurring only 14-21% of the time. The prevailing onshore flow from the NW and W ruins wave quality, leaving mostly choppy, messy conditions. Summer only delivers a few standout days when early-morning easterly winds coincide with a rare pulse of waist-high swell.
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Conditions at Cox Bay in May
May: Lull Begins
May marks the start of the summer lull with average swell dropping to 1.5m and period at 11.7s. Swell directions are dominated by WSW (34.7%) and W (31.6%), but heights are mostly in the 1-1.5m range (32% combined) – small, fun-sized waves ideal for groveling. Offshore wind frequency hits a low of 21%, as onshore WNW flow ramps up to a staggering 31%. The combination of weak swell and frequent onshore winds makes clean surf a rarity. Your best bet is early morning before the sea breeze kicks in, or when a southward dip in the jet stream sends a punchy 1.5m SW swell that overpowers the local chop.
Average Spot conditions at Cox Bay in May
Swell history for May
Wind history for May
Swell quality
Analyze the groundswell consistency at Cox Bay during May. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Cox Bay for your next trip in May.
Ground swell
Ground swell by size
Wind conditions
Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Cox Bay for May. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Cox Bay.