Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Domes seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (November - March)

The heart of the North Pacific winter drives the most consistent and powerful swell energy toward the Hawaiian Islands, and while Domes misses the direct blast of the predominant NW swell, it still feels the pulse. During these months, average swell heights climb to a solid 1.5m with periods averaging 10 seconds, offering punchy, rideable waves. The swell is dominated by a persistent NE trade wind regime, which wraps into the WNW-facing beach, producing lined-up surf that can get fun, good, and solid especially when the swell bumps up to the 1.5-2.5m range. Offshore winds from the east sector blow cleanly across the bay a majority of the time, making for glassier conditions on the best days. While the classic long-period NW groundswells are rare here, the steady NE pulses combined with favorable winds create a reliable winter surf window.

Fair Surf Season (April & October)

These transitional months see a drop in overall size, with average swell heights around 1.2-1.3m and periods in the 9-10 second range. The NE swell machine still dominates, but the power is less consistent. April and October offer a good chance of small, fun-sized waves that are rippable on a high-performance shortboard. The wind remains predominantly from the east, keeping the surface clean. These months are a sweet spot for avoiding the winter crowds while still scoring fun, groveling waves when the trade winds kick up the local fetch.

Low Surf Season (May - September)

Summer settles in with a distinct shift to smaller, weaker swells. From May through September, average wave heights hover around 1.0m and periods drop below 8 seconds, producing choppy, low, messy surf at times. The swell is overwhelmingly from the ENE and E directions (over 80% of events), which offers little to no swell from the optimal W to NW window. The good news is that the wind is ideal 80-90% of the time, with gentle offshore breezes from the east. However, the lack of size and period means the waves are often small and groveling – better suited for longboards or foil boards. True pumping or firing conditions are exceedingly rare during these months.

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Conditions at Domes in October

October: Winter Swell Returns

October sees a sharp increase in swell action as North Pacific storms become more frequent and intense. Average swell height jumps to 1.2m with a period of 10.0s, signaling the return of powerful, long period waves. The dominant swell directions are NE (44.3%) and NNE (22.2%), but there is also a notable presence of NNW swell (2.0%) and N swell (4.0%), offering the first real taste of the optimal W-to-NW swell window. The wave height distribution shows a healthy percentage of 1-1.5m and 1.5-2m waves, with occasional bigger sets. The wind is ideal 83% of the time, with east-northeast trades providing clean offshore conditions. October is a prime month for scoring good to pumping surf at Domes, especially when a true NW swell lines up with the right wind. The ocean is waking up, and the surf quality improves dramatically compared to the summer months.

Average Spot conditions at Domes in October

Swell history for October

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for October

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Domes during October. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Domes for your next trip in October.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Domes for October. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Domes.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size