Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Domes seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (November - March)

The heart of the North Pacific winter drives the most consistent and powerful swell energy toward the Hawaiian Islands, and while Domes misses the direct blast of the predominant NW swell, it still feels the pulse. During these months, average swell heights climb to a solid 1.5m with periods averaging 10 seconds, offering punchy, rideable waves. The swell is dominated by a persistent NE trade wind regime, which wraps into the WNW-facing beach, producing lined-up surf that can get fun, good, and solid especially when the swell bumps up to the 1.5-2.5m range. Offshore winds from the east sector blow cleanly across the bay a majority of the time, making for glassier conditions on the best days. While the classic long-period NW groundswells are rare here, the steady NE pulses combined with favorable winds create a reliable winter surf window.

Fair Surf Season (April & October)

These transitional months see a drop in overall size, with average swell heights around 1.2-1.3m and periods in the 9-10 second range. The NE swell machine still dominates, but the power is less consistent. April and October offer a good chance of small, fun-sized waves that are rippable on a high-performance shortboard. The wind remains predominantly from the east, keeping the surface clean. These months are a sweet spot for avoiding the winter crowds while still scoring fun, groveling waves when the trade winds kick up the local fetch.

Low Surf Season (May - September)

Summer settles in with a distinct shift to smaller, weaker swells. From May through September, average wave heights hover around 1.0m and periods drop below 8 seconds, producing choppy, low, messy surf at times. The swell is overwhelmingly from the ENE and E directions (over 80% of events), which offers little to no swell from the optimal W to NW window. The good news is that the wind is ideal 80-90% of the time, with gentle offshore breezes from the east. However, the lack of size and period means the waves are often small and groveling – better suited for longboards or foil boards. True pumping or firing conditions are exceedingly rare during these months.

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Conditions at Domes in September

September: Transitional Uptick

September marks the beginning of the transition back toward larger surf, though the numbers still reflect summer conditions. The average swell height is 1.1m, but the period increases to 9.1s, hinting at the return of longer-period energy. The swell direction is now split between ENE (33.6%) and NE (34.2%), with a growing percentage of NNE (12.7%) and even some N (2.5%) and NNW (2.0%) swell beginning to appear. This shift indicates that early winter storms are starting to form in the North Pacific. The wind is ideal 81% of the time, with light to moderate easterly breezes. Surfers will start to see more powerful, long period days as the month progresses. While the overall size is still modest, the increasing period and occasional NW component make September an exciting month for those watching the forecasts closely.

Average Spot conditions at Domes in September

Swell history for September

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for September

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Domes during September. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Domes for your next trip in September.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Domes for September. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Domes.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size