Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

El Chinchorro seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (November - February)

Winter at El Chinchorro is prime time. The North Atlantic winter pattern strengthens the trade winds and sends consistent east-northeast swell marching toward the Dominican south coast. Combined with a high frequency of offshore winds from the north and northwest (peaking at 76% in December), the surf becomes clean and punchy. Average wave heights range from 1.0 to 1.2m with periods around 6.2-6.5s, providing fun-sized, rippable waves. While the swell direction is not optimal (dominant from E to ESE), the offshore wind cleans up the faces nicely. This is the most reliable window for good waves.

Fair Surf Season (March - April & September - October)

During the spring and fall shoulders, the offshore wind frequency drops to the 53-56% range and the swell mix shifts more toward shorter period ESE swells. Wave heights thin to 0.8-1.0m, and the quality becomes more inconsistent. Still, there are plenty of groveling sessions to be had, especially when the wind swings clean.

Low Surf Season (May - August)

The summer months are the toughest for finding clean waves at El Chinchorro. Offshore wind percentages dip to their annual lows (as low as 47% in June), and the swell is almost exclusively from the ESE with short periods (6.2-6.6s). Wave heights hold around 1.0-1.1m but lack power and shape. The onshore winds from the south and southwest during this time can quickly turn conditions choppy. However, the Atlantic hurricane season can throw in some long-period gems if you keep an eye on tropical disturbances.

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Conditions at El Chinchorro in January

January: Winter Peak with Clean Offshore Flow

January delivers the strongest combination of easterly swell and offshore north winds at El Chinchorro. With 69% of the time offering ideal wind conditions, the dominant N and NNW breezes groom the east-southeast swell into clean, lined-up walls. Average wave heights reach 1.2m with a punchy 6.4s period, providing plenty of fun-sized waves for your daily session. While the swell direction is far from optimal (predominantly ESE), the offshore wind more than compensates, making for crisp take-offs and open faces. It's the peak of the winter season – expect consistent, rideable surf day in and day out.

Average Spot conditions at El Chinchorro in January

Swell history for January

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for January

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at El Chinchorro during January. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at El Chinchorro for your next trip in January.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at El Chinchorro for January. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at El Chinchorro.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size