Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

El Chinchorro seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (November - February)

Winter at El Chinchorro is prime time. The North Atlantic winter pattern strengthens the trade winds and sends consistent east-northeast swell marching toward the Dominican south coast. Combined with a high frequency of offshore winds from the north and northwest (peaking at 76% in December), the surf becomes clean and punchy. Average wave heights range from 1.0 to 1.2m with periods around 6.2-6.5s, providing fun-sized, rippable waves. While the swell direction is not optimal (dominant from E to ESE), the offshore wind cleans up the faces nicely. This is the most reliable window for good waves.

Fair Surf Season (March - April & September - October)

During the spring and fall shoulders, the offshore wind frequency drops to the 53-56% range and the swell mix shifts more toward shorter period ESE swells. Wave heights thin to 0.8-1.0m, and the quality becomes more inconsistent. Still, there are plenty of groveling sessions to be had, especially when the wind swings clean.

Low Surf Season (May - August)

The summer months are the toughest for finding clean waves at El Chinchorro. Offshore wind percentages dip to their annual lows (as low as 47% in June), and the swell is almost exclusively from the ESE with short periods (6.2-6.6s). Wave heights hold around 1.0-1.1m but lack power and shape. The onshore winds from the south and southwest during this time can quickly turn conditions choppy. However, the Atlantic hurricane season can throw in some long-period gems if you keep an eye on tropical disturbances.

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Conditions at El Chinchorro in October

October: Fresh Swell Hopes

October is a transitional month with the lowest average wave heights of the year at just 0.8m and a short 6.0s period. The dominant swell is still ESE, but there is a hint of NE swell creeping in as the winter pattern develops. Offshore wind frequency holds at 56%, with strong contributions from N and NNW. The quality is marginal – mostly grovelers and micro-sessions – but the changing season brings the potential for the first decent NW windswell of the year. It's a teaser month, with better things just around the corner.

Average Spot conditions at El Chinchorro in October

Swell history for October

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for October

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at El Chinchorro during October. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at El Chinchorro for your next trip in October.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at El Chinchorro for October. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at El Chinchorro.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size