Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

First Point seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (November - March)

The winter months bring a consistent and powerful pulse of long-period swell to First Point, driven by the North Pacific's relentless storm track. While the dominant swell direction is from the west and west-southwest—not the ideal southern angles—the sheer energy and extended period (averaging 12-13 seconds) allow these waves to wrap into the south-facing beach, offering solid, punchy surf. The real highlight is the wind regime: northerly quadrants (N, NNE, NNW) blow offshore over 55% of the time, grooming the faces and turning even average-sized sets into rippable gems. Expect average heights around 0.8-0.9m, with occasional 1.5-2m pulses when a strong low pressures aligns. This is the prime window for quality surf at First Point.

Fair Surf Season (April - May & September - October)

Transitional months see a shift in both swell and wind patterns. The northern storms begin to wane, and the swell direction becomes more southwesterly. Wind ideal conditions drop to 50-51% in April and September, with lighter onshores (WSW, W) mixing in. The average height holds near 0.8-0.9m, but the period dips slightly, and the increased wind variability means fewer clean windows. Still, there are fun days when a southwest swell meets a northerly breeze—those are the moments to be in the water.

Low Surf Season (June - August)

Summer slumps into First Point with a vengeance. The swell height averages just 0.8m and comes almost exclusively from the west, wrapping weakly. The period remains long (12.5-12.7s) but lacks the power to push through the summer heat. The real killer is the wind: ideal offshore conditions drop to a mere 32-45% as the prevailing trade winds blow from the south-southwest and west, creating bumpy, choppy surfaces. Expect small, groveling waves best suited for a longboard or funboard, with rare clean windows as the sun sets.

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Conditions at First Point in October

October: Building Energy

October sees the North Pacific awaken. Average swell height is 0.7m (lowest of the year), but the period jumps to 12.9s—the highest. This is classic fall: long-period, low-height swells that surprise. WSW (38.8%) and SW (34.9%) are the main directions, with W (16.4%) also wrapping in. Wind ideal is 54%, helped by NNE (8.3%) and N (5.3%) offshore flow. The combination of long period and north wind can produce clean, hollow waves even with small height. This is the month when the first proper swell of the season can appear.

Average Spot conditions at First Point in October

Swell history for October

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for October

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at First Point during October. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at First Point for your next trip in October.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at First Point for October. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at First Point.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size