Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Fitzroy Beach seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (March - May)

Autumn is prime time at Fitzroy Beach as the Tasman Sea comes alive with consistent, long-period SW groundswells. The dominant WSW swell direction, while not perfectly aligned, wraps nicely into the northwest-facing beach, producing clean, peeling lines that offer both power and length. Offshore winds from the SW to W are most frequent during these months, with ideal wind percentages reaching 23-25%. Average wave heights climb from 1.7m to 2.1m, and periods average 12 seconds, delivering fun, rippable waves that hold shape through the afternoon. This is the sweet spot for surfers seeking quality over quantity.

Fair Surf Season (June - August)

Winter delivers the biggest and most consistent surf at Fitzroy. Average heights hold at a solid 2.1m with periods in the 12-second range, producing powerful, sometimes heavy waves from the WSW groundswell train. However, the frequency of onshore NW winds increases, making clean conditions less predictable. Ideal wind percentages dip slightly to 21-24%, yet when a high-pressure system parks over the South Island, winds shift to the SW, creating offshore conditions that groom the swell into clean, bowling walls. This is the season for charging, but you'll need patience for the windows of bliss.

Low Surf Season (September - January)

Spring and early summer see a drop in both swell size and wind consistency. Average heights range from 1.6m to 2.1m, but ideal wind percentages fall below 20% (as low as 15% in October). The wind becomes more variable, often swinging between NW onshore flows and lighter sea breezes that chop the surface. However, occasional distant W swells combined with a southerly burst can still produce fun, clean days. It's a groveler's paradise when it's small, but keep an eye on the forecast for those rare, fleeting windows of quality.

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Conditions at Fitzroy Beach in July

July: Winter Peak – Big, Clean Windows

July maintains 2.1m average swell with a slightly higher period of 11.9 seconds. The swell distribution is similar to June, with WSW at 30.7%, W at 11.0%, and a notable WNW contribution of 7.0%. This means better angle for the beach. Ideal wind is 24% – a slight improvement. The wind rose shows a strong SE component (10.4%) and SSE (9.6%), often providing morning offshore flow. However, WSW wind (13.3%) also persists, which is actually offshore for this beach. When a tropical trough interacts with a polar front, expect long-period swells from the W–NW with light SE winds – that’s the magic formula for firing Fitzroy. These days can produce some of the best barrels of the year.

Average Spot conditions at Fitzroy Beach in July

Swell history for July

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for July

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Fitzroy Beach during July. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Fitzroy Beach for your next trip in July.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Fitzroy Beach for July. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Fitzroy Beach.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size