Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Fitzroy Beach seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (March - May)

Autumn is prime time at Fitzroy Beach as the Tasman Sea comes alive with consistent, long-period SW groundswells. The dominant WSW swell direction, while not perfectly aligned, wraps nicely into the northwest-facing beach, producing clean, peeling lines that offer both power and length. Offshore winds from the SW to W are most frequent during these months, with ideal wind percentages reaching 23-25%. Average wave heights climb from 1.7m to 2.1m, and periods average 12 seconds, delivering fun, rippable waves that hold shape through the afternoon. This is the sweet spot for surfers seeking quality over quantity.

Fair Surf Season (June - August)

Winter delivers the biggest and most consistent surf at Fitzroy. Average heights hold at a solid 2.1m with periods in the 12-second range, producing powerful, sometimes heavy waves from the WSW groundswell train. However, the frequency of onshore NW winds increases, making clean conditions less predictable. Ideal wind percentages dip slightly to 21-24%, yet when a high-pressure system parks over the South Island, winds shift to the SW, creating offshore conditions that groom the swell into clean, bowling walls. This is the season for charging, but you'll need patience for the windows of bliss.

Low Surf Season (September - January)

Spring and early summer see a drop in both swell size and wind consistency. Average heights range from 1.6m to 2.1m, but ideal wind percentages fall below 20% (as low as 15% in October). The wind becomes more variable, often swinging between NW onshore flows and lighter sea breezes that chop the surface. However, occasional distant W swells combined with a southerly burst can still produce fun, clean days. It's a groveler's paradise when it's small, but keep an eye on the forecast for those rare, fleeting windows of quality.

Loading chart...

Conditions at Fitzroy Beach in October

October: Spring Tease – Variable Winds, Solid Groundswells

October swings into a spring pattern with 2.1m average swell at 11.9 seconds. The swell direction is very similar to September, with WSW leading (38.1%) and strong W (15.4%) and WNW (6.9%) input. However, ideal wind reaches its annual low at 15% – the most difficult month for conditions. The wind rose shows a high proportion of NW (7.6%) and NNW (6.7%) onshore flows, along with strong WSW (18.9%) and W (12.5%) winds that, while offshore, are often too strong for clean waves. Occasional southerly changes bring brief windows of SW–SSW offshore winds, aligning perfectly with the swell direction. These are the golden hours: expect chest- to head-high waves with occasional longer-period sets.

Average Spot conditions at Fitzroy Beach in October

Swell history for October

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for October

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Fitzroy Beach during October. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Fitzroy Beach for your next trip in October.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Fitzroy Beach for October. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Fitzroy Beach.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size