Horseshoe - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (June - September)

During the southwest monsoon, the Philippines enter a period of more consistent offshore winds for east-facing spots. The average wave heights drop to a modest 0.7–0.8 m, but the key here is quality over quantity. The monsoon trough pumps warm, moist air from the southwest, generating light to moderate westerly breezes that groom the small, fun-sized swell. Periods hover around 8.5–9.5 s, giving the waves just enough punch for groveling and high-performance surfing. While the swell is rarely pumping, the clean surface conditions make these months the most surfable at Horseshoe.

Fair Surf Season (May & October)

These transitional months represent a tug-of-war between the retreating NE monsoon and the advancing SW monsoon. May sees a rise in ideal wind percentages (12%) as the trades weaken, while October enjoys a bump in average period to 10.2 s and a healthy 35% offshore frequency. Swell heights sit around 1.1 m, delivering a mix of rideable small waves and occasional bigger sets. The window is shorter, but when the synoptic setup aligns, you can score clean, rippable waves with fewer crowds.

Low Surf Season (November - April)

The northeast monsoon dominates from November through April, bringing a persistent stream of powerful NE swell. Average heights range from 1.3 m in November to 1.7 m in January, with periods in the 9.5–10 s range. Unfortunately, the same monsoon that delivers the size also drives strong, steady ENE to NE winds that are directly onshore at Horseshoe. Ideal wind percentages plummet to 1–5%, meaning the ocean is often a messy, choppy mess. While the occasional cold-front or typhoon passage can briefly align conditions, consistency is poor. This season is best suited for wave-starved chargers willing to gamble on a fleeting wind shift.

July: Peak Offshore Stability

July offers the best wind consistency of the year, with ideal conditions 33% of the time. The average swell height remains low at 0.7 m and period at 8.4 s. Swell direction spreads out: ENE (34.8%) and E (23.4%) are still primary, but westerly swell from WSW (6.5%) and W (6.1%) begins to gain ground, offering a more diverse wave field. Wind comes from the west (WSW, W, WNW) over 27% of the time, creating long windows of clean, glassy conditions. The waves are small and weak, but when a 1–1.5 m set rolls in on a glassy morning, it can be a dream session. This is the sweet spot for dedicated grovelers.