Horseshoe - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (June - September)

During the southwest monsoon, the Philippines enter a period of more consistent offshore winds for east-facing spots. The average wave heights drop to a modest 0.7–0.8 m, but the key here is quality over quantity. The monsoon trough pumps warm, moist air from the southwest, generating light to moderate westerly breezes that groom the small, fun-sized swell. Periods hover around 8.5–9.5 s, giving the waves just enough punch for groveling and high-performance surfing. While the swell is rarely pumping, the clean surface conditions make these months the most surfable at Horseshoe.

Fair Surf Season (May & October)

These transitional months represent a tug-of-war between the retreating NE monsoon and the advancing SW monsoon. May sees a rise in ideal wind percentages (12%) as the trades weaken, while October enjoys a bump in average period to 10.2 s and a healthy 35% offshore frequency. Swell heights sit around 1.1 m, delivering a mix of rideable small waves and occasional bigger sets. The window is shorter, but when the synoptic setup aligns, you can score clean, rippable waves with fewer crowds.

Low Surf Season (November - April)

The northeast monsoon dominates from November through April, bringing a persistent stream of powerful NE swell. Average heights range from 1.3 m in November to 1.7 m in January, with periods in the 9.5–10 s range. Unfortunately, the same monsoon that delivers the size also drives strong, steady ENE to NE winds that are directly onshore at Horseshoe. Ideal wind percentages plummet to 1–5%, meaning the ocean is often a messy, choppy mess. While the occasional cold-front or typhoon passage can briefly align conditions, consistency is poor. This season is best suited for wave-starved chargers willing to gamble on a fleeting wind shift.

October: Autumn Swell Returns

October sees a significant jump in average period to 10.2 s, and the swell height reaches 1.1 m. Swell direction shifts strongly to NE (49.1%) and NNE (20.0%), bringing powerful long-period groundswell. Ideal wind conditions are still excellent at 35%, with westerly winds (W, WNW, NW) frequently grooming the sets. The monsoon trough lingers, providing a mix of offshore breezes and occasional light sea breezes. The waves are mostly in the ‘fun’ to ‘good’ range, with the potential for bigger days when a typhoon passes nearby. This month offers the best balance of size and clean conditions.