Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Katagai seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (December - February)

The heart of winter brings Katagai to life. The Aleutian low pressure system intensifies, pumping consistent ENE to ESE swell across the North Pacific. With average wave heights hovering around 1.2m and periods pushing 9.5s, these pulses deliver powerful, rideable waves. More importantly, the seasonal high pressure over the Asian continent drives a dominant offshore wind from the NW to WNW, cleaning up the faces and creating peak conditions nearly half the time. This is when Katagai truly shines.

Fair Surf Season (November & March)

The transitional months of November and March offer a mixed bag. While swell direction remains favorable from the east-northeast to southeast, the wind patterns become less reliable. November benefits from the tail end of the winter regime with 37% ideal wind, while March sees a drop to 29% as the monsoon begins to shift. Expect fun surf on the days when the wind cooperates, but be ready for more variable conditions.

Low Surf Season (April - September)

From spring through early autumn, Katagai struggles with inconsistent conditions. Swell from the dominant ESE-SE directions persists, but the average period drops to 8-9 seconds, resulting in weaker, lumpier waves. The wind regime is dominated by onshore flow from the S and SSW, part of the summer monsoon and typhoon influence. Ideal offshore wind drops to 20-25%, meaning most days are blown out. While occasional typhoon swells can fire up the spot, the overall consistency and quality take a backseat to the winter months.

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Conditions at Katagai in January

January: Peak Winter Powerhouse

January delivers the most consistent surf of the year at Katagai. The North Pacific roars to life as the Aleutian low pumps a steady stream of ENE and NE swell into the region. With an average height of 1.2m and a period of 9.5s, these waves are punchy and rideable, often reaching the fun 1-1.5m range. The dominant wind pattern is offshore from the NW to NNW, driven by the Siberian high, keeping the waves clean and groomed. In fact, ideal wind conditions occur 46% of the time, making this the best month to score. Expect long period swells in the 10-14s range to occasionally push in, adding extra power.

Average Spot conditions at Katagai in January

Swell history for January

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for January

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Katagai during January. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Katagai for your next trip in January.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Katagai for January. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Katagai.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size