Keramas - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (December - March)

The northwest monsoon takes hold, delivering a powerful combination of consistent, long-period S-SSW swell and predominantly offshore winds out of the northern quadrants. From December through March, Keramas comes alive. Average wave heights hover in the fun, rippable 0.8-1.0m range, but the 12-14s period gives them serious punch. This is when the iconic righthander is at its most groomed, offering smooth, hollow walls. The stats back it up: offshore wind frequency peaks at 64% in January and remains above 40% through March, creating clean, lined-up sets from morning to evening.

Fair Surf Season (April & November)

The transition months between monsoons introduce a pick-and-choose scenario. In April, the southeast trades start to strengthen, dropping offshore wind frequency to just 17%. However, the swell direction shifts more directly from the S-SSW, and average periods climb to nearly 14s. You can still find glassy windows early in the month before the afternoon sea breeze kicks in. November sees the return of northwesterly winds as the northwest monsoon builds, but the wind is still fickle – only 15% ideal. The swell, almost exclusively from the SSW, delivers clean, chest-to-head-high waves when the wind cooperates. It’s a month of patience rewarded.

Low Surf Season (May - October)

The southeast monsoon dominates from May through October, and for a SSE-facing reef, this is the cruellest period. Persistent onshore winds from the E-ESE-SE blow a steady 10-20kph, 50-70% of the time, chopping up even the most powerful swell. The wave heights actually peak during these months – averaging 1.0-1.1m with long 14s periods – but the wind-ruined surface makes most days unrideable. Offshore wind frequency plummets to between 1-5% from June to September. Only the occasional dawn patrol before the trades kick in, or a rare synoptic pattern that backs the wind to the north, will offer a window. This is the time to travel elsewhere or pack a groveler and hope for magic.

July: The Depth of the Dry

July is the toughest month for surf at Keramas. Offshore wind frequency hits rock bottom at 1%. The wind is overwhelmingly from the SE (45.9%) and ESE (35.6%), blowing 10-20kph, creating a perpetual choppy surface. Swell, however, is at its peak: average height 1.1m, period 14.3s. The directions are S (44.6%) and SSW (45.2%), with a massive 28.9% in the 1-1.5m range. That’s a firing wave profile – if only the wind would cooperate. Only the most desperate dawn patrol, or a rare typhoon that pulls winds around, can offer a session. This month is best for exploring other spots.