Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Llorente seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (October - November)

As the northeast monsoon begins to weaken and the first distant storms from the North Pacific send pulses of long-period swell toward the Philippine coast, October and November deliver the best all-around conditions at Llorente. Average wave heights hover in the 1.1-1.5m range with periods often pushing into the 10-second zone, offering rippable waves on a consistent basis. More importantly, the trade winds that plague the winter months start to slacken, and the offshore flow from the SSW to W quadrants becomes more frequent — especially in October, when ideal wind occurs over 35% of the time. This is the sweet spot when you can score clean, punchy surf without the constant onshore battle.

Fair Surf Season (December - March)

Winter delivers the biggest swell of the year at Llorente. From December through March, average wave heights range from 1.5m to 1.8m, with periods in the 9-10 second range and occasional long-period pulses exceeding 12 seconds. The dominant swell direction is ENE to NE, right in the optimal window for the beach's Ost-Nord-Ost orientation. However, the northeast monsoon is in full swing, and onshore winds from the NNE to E blow relentlessly, ruining wave quality more than 95% of the time. Opportunities do arise when a weak high-pressure system stalls or a tropical depression passes to the south, allowing brief windows of offshore SSW to W winds. These are the days to watch — when the combination of heavy, powerful swell and glassy conditions can produce pumping, heavy waves in the 1.5-2.5m range.

Low Surf Season (April - September)

The summer months bring a dramatic shift in the surf regime. The northeast monsoon collapses, and the southwest monsoon (Habagat) takes over. While the wind becomes much more favorable — ideal offshore flow from the SSW to W quadrants peaks at over 60% in August and September — the swell energy plummets. Average wave heights drop to 0.7-0.9m, with periods averaging 8.6-9.7 seconds. The dominant swell direction rotates to more from the E and ESE, which is outside the optimal window. Most days are characterized by small, groveling surf with occasional fun-sized waves when distant typhoons produce long-period pulses. The best bets during this lean season are early morning sessions when seabreezes are light, or tracking tropical cyclones that can deliver brief, punchy swells from the NE quadrant before the wind shifts onshore.

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Conditions at Llorente in January

January: Winter's Full Force

The northeast monsoon is locked in, driving steady ENE winds at 10-20kph over 38% of the month, with many days seeing gusts over 20kph. This constant onshore flow keeps the ocean choppy and messy, even though the swell is pumping. Average wave height sits at 1.8m, with a solid 9.4s period, and a massive 63% of the swell comes from the ENE direction in the 1-2m range. Those are the waves you want — but the wind is almost always wrong. Only 1% of the time do we see offshore winds from the SSW-W quadrants. On the rare day when a high-pressure ridge allows light westerly flow, you can score pumping, heavy surf in the 1.5-2.5m range with clean faces. Most of the time, though, expect bumpy, blown-out waves ideal for the hardcore crew only.

Average Spot conditions at Llorente in January

Swell history for January

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for January

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Llorente during January. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Llorente for your next trip in January.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Llorente for January. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Llorente.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size