Makaha - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (May - August)

Makaha’s surf is entirely dependent on long-period SSW swell generated by low-pressure systems in the South Pacific. From May to August, the average wave height crests at 1.5m with periods consistently in the 13-second range, delivering powerful, sucky waves that wrap into the southwest-facing beach. However, the catch is the near-constant onshore wind. The South Pacific anticyclone locks in persistent S to SSE flow at 10-20kph, making conditions blown-out for most of the day. The few windows of offshore N to NE winds are vanishingly rare—less than 1% of the time—so the best surf happens at dawn when the wind is lightest, or during the occasional passage of a cold front that shifts the wind to the north. Even with the onshore texture, the sheer energy of the swell makes this the most consistent season for size.

Fair Surf Season (September - April)

As austral spring and summer progress, the average swell height dips slightly to 1.2-1.4m, but the period remains excellent at 12-13 seconds. The wind pattern remains the same: onshore S winds dominate over 80% of the time. The lighter sea breezes of summer (December-February) can occasionally provide clean conditions in the late afternoon when the thermal gradient weakens, but genuine offshore days are still exceptionally rare. The swell becomes a touch less consistent and a bit smaller, making for a fair season marked by fun, rippable waves when the wind cooperates. The most reliable surf during these months comes from SSW groundswell that peaks during the new moon tidal swings.

Low Surf Season (No Distinct Low Season)

Given the constant influx of SSW swell from the Southern Ocean, Makaha never truly goes flat. Even in the “low” months of January and February, the average height stays above 1.2m. The real limiting factor is the wind, not the swell. So rather than a traditional low season, we consider periods of extended onshore gales (30+kph from the S) as the worst conditions—these occur mainly in May and June when the South Pacific high strengthens. During these events, the water becomes lumpy and choppy, and only the most sheltered corners of the beach offer rideable waves. With patience, however, a window always opens.

July: Mid-Winter Lull? Not Here

Average height stays at 1.5m, but the period drops slightly to 13.0s. The swell mix is still dominated by SSW (83.8%), with S swell rising to 7.3% and SW at 8.2%. Heights in the 1-1.5m and 1.5-2m categories remain the most frequent. So wave quality is still solid—the waves are powerful and tend to barrel on the steeper sand banks. Wind stats are monotonous: 83.3% from the south, with 21.2% now in the 20-30kph range. That’s stiff onshore. The rare offshore from the north might be glimpsed during a clearance after a passing trough, but the data shows 0% for N, NNE, NE—so it’s essentially a myth in July. Surfers rely on early starts before the wind picks up.