Makaha - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (May - August)

Makaha’s surf is entirely dependent on long-period SSW swell generated by low-pressure systems in the South Pacific. From May to August, the average wave height crests at 1.5m with periods consistently in the 13-second range, delivering powerful, sucky waves that wrap into the southwest-facing beach. However, the catch is the near-constant onshore wind. The South Pacific anticyclone locks in persistent S to SSE flow at 10-20kph, making conditions blown-out for most of the day. The few windows of offshore N to NE winds are vanishingly rare—less than 1% of the time—so the best surf happens at dawn when the wind is lightest, or during the occasional passage of a cold front that shifts the wind to the north. Even with the onshore texture, the sheer energy of the swell makes this the most consistent season for size.

Fair Surf Season (September - April)

As austral spring and summer progress, the average swell height dips slightly to 1.2-1.4m, but the period remains excellent at 12-13 seconds. The wind pattern remains the same: onshore S winds dominate over 80% of the time. The lighter sea breezes of summer (December-February) can occasionally provide clean conditions in the late afternoon when the thermal gradient weakens, but genuine offshore days are still exceptionally rare. The swell becomes a touch less consistent and a bit smaller, making for a fair season marked by fun, rippable waves when the wind cooperates. The most reliable surf during these months comes from SSW groundswell that peaks during the new moon tidal swings.

Low Surf Season (No Distinct Low Season)

Given the constant influx of SSW swell from the Southern Ocean, Makaha never truly goes flat. Even in the “low” months of January and February, the average height stays above 1.2m. The real limiting factor is the wind, not the swell. So rather than a traditional low season, we consider periods of extended onshore gales (30+kph from the S) as the worst conditions—these occur mainly in May and June when the South Pacific high strengthens. During these events, the water becomes lumpy and choppy, and only the most sheltered corners of the beach offer rideable waves. With patience, however, a window always opens.

November: Swell Fading, Wind Still the Foe

November averages 1.3m at 13.0s. The swell direction is almost exclusively SSW (95.3%), with 67.7% in the 1-1.5m range and 21.6% in the 1.5-2m band. So fun, rideable waves but less of the overhead sets that defined winter. The period remains enough for the wave to hold shape. Wind stats: 81.1% from the south, 71.4% at 10-20kph. The 20-30kph fraction drops to 7.8%. Lighter wind overall, but still onshore. Offshore from any northern quadrant is 0%. The spring season offers longer lulls in the wind due to weaker pressure gradients. Those afternoons with a light sea breeze (which is from the SW, still onshore) can become glassy. Look for high-pressure systems that stall to the east, allowing the wind to clock around to the southeast—still cross-shore but more manageable.