Manly - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (October - March)

During the Australian spring and summer, the trade winds set up from the east, providing offshore conditions for Manly's west-facing beach. While the dominant swell direction is from the east and southeast, these long-period groundswells can wrap around the headlands, delivering fun-sized waves in the 1-1.5m range. Average periods hover around 8-9 seconds, offering punchy, rideable surf. The combination of consistent easterly winds and occasional south swells makes this the most reliable window for clean surf, with wind ideal percentages peaking above 45%.

Fair Surf Season (April - May & September)

As the seasons transition, the wind patterns become more variable. Autumn and early spring see a drop in offshore wind frequency to around 27-38%, while the swell direction gradually shifts more southerly. The wave heights remain solid at 1.6-1.7m on average, but the increasing incidence of onshore westerly winds during cold fronts often chops up the surface. Still, when a strong low-pressure system in the Tasman Sea aligns with a southerly swell, Manly can see some clean, long-period waves peeling along the beach.

Low Surf Season (June - August)

Winter brings the heart of the storm track into the Tasman Sea, generating more frequent west and southwest swells that actually face directly into Manly. However, these same storms also deliver strong onshore westerly winds, making conditions sloppy and blown out. The wind ideal percentage plummets to below 20%, and the majority of the time you'll find choppy, messy surf. The occasional rogue day with offshore easterly winds can offer surprisingly good waves, but they are few and far between.

March: Autumn's First Transition

March marks the beginning of the autumn transition, though conditions remain favorable. Wind ideal percentage dips to 47%, still solid. Swell directions shift slightly more southerly, with SSE (19.3%) and SE (16.9%) now leading. The average wave height holds at 1.7m, and the average period increases to 9.2s, indicating more long-period energy from distant storms. While the offshore easterly winds continue to dominate, the increasing frequency of south swells can bring slightly larger, more powerful waves in the 1.5-2m range. This month often sees a mix of clean summer-style surf and early autumn groundswell.