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Manly - surf spot statistics
Manly seasonal overview
Best Surf Season (October - March)
During the Australian spring and summer, the trade winds set up from the east, providing offshore conditions for Manly's west-facing beach. While the dominant swell direction is from the east and southeast, these long-period groundswells can wrap around the headlands, delivering fun-sized waves in the 1-1.5m range. Average periods hover around 8-9 seconds, offering punchy, rideable surf. The combination of consistent easterly winds and occasional south swells makes this the most reliable window for clean surf, with wind ideal percentages peaking above 45%.
Fair Surf Season (April - May & September)
As the seasons transition, the wind patterns become more variable. Autumn and early spring see a drop in offshore wind frequency to around 27-38%, while the swell direction gradually shifts more southerly. The wave heights remain solid at 1.6-1.7m on average, but the increasing incidence of onshore westerly winds during cold fronts often chops up the surface. Still, when a strong low-pressure system in the Tasman Sea aligns with a southerly swell, Manly can see some clean, long-period waves peeling along the beach.
Low Surf Season (June - August)
Winter brings the heart of the storm track into the Tasman Sea, generating more frequent west and southwest swells that actually face directly into Manly. However, these same storms also deliver strong onshore westerly winds, making conditions sloppy and blown out. The wind ideal percentage plummets to below 20%, and the majority of the time you'll find choppy, messy surf. The occasional rogue day with offshore easterly winds can offer surprisingly good waves, but they are few and far between.
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Conditions at Manly in October
October: The Sweet Spot Arrives
October marks the beginning of the best surf season at Manly. Wind ideal percentage jumps to 38%, with offshore easterly trade winds becoming more established. Swell from SSE (19.3%) and S (13.4%) continues, but ENE (12.0%) and NE (9.1%) swells increase. Average wave height is 1.6m with a period of 8.7s. The consistent easterly winds groom the waves to perfection, and the long-period south swells wrap around the headlands to deliver clean, rippable surf. This month often sees the first truly epic days of the season.
Average Spot conditions at Manly in October
Swell history for October
Wind history for October
Swell quality
Analyze the groundswell consistency at Manly during October. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Manly for your next trip in October.
Ground swell
Ground swell by size
Wind conditions
Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Manly for October. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Manly.