Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Manuel Antonio seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (December - April)

The dry season brings the Northeast trade winds that blow offshore across our SSW-facing beaches, creating clean, glassy conditions. Swell from the deep South Pacific is consistent, with average heights around 1.0 to 1.2m and long periods of 12-14 seconds. January through March are the peak months, with ideal wind frequencies above 25% and most waves in the fun, rippable 0.5-1.5m range. The combination of offshore wind and long-period groundswell makes this the premier time to score Manuel Antonio.

Fair Surf Season (May - August)

As the Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts north, the trade winds weaken and onshore southerly and southwesterly flow becomes more common. Ideal wind drops to 19-22% of the time, but swell actually builds, averaging 1.3-1.4m with periods of 13-14 seconds. The SSW and SW swells are stronger, often reaching pumping 1.5-2m heights. When an early-morning or late-evening offshore window aligns with these bigger swells, the waves can be spectacular. It is a gamble, but the payoff is worth it.

Low Surf Season (September - November)

The transition back to dry season is slow, with onshore winds still prevalent, especially in October and November when ideal wind falls to 15-19%. Swell heights decrease slightly to 1.2-1.4m but remain rideable. November is the most challenging month due to persistent southerly winds. However, September shows a hint of improvement with ideal wind at 24%, and occasional strong offshore flows from the north can still deliver clean, long-period waves. Patience and a close eye on the forecast are key.

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Conditions at Manuel Antonio in January

January: Peak Season Perfection

January marks the heart of the dry season along the Central Pacific coast. The Northeast trade winds blow offshore from N to ENE 26% of the time, typically light under 10kph, grooming the swell into clean, lined-up waves. Swell is dominated by SSW (69.8%) and SW (27.6%) directions, with an average height of 1.0m and a long period of 12.4s. Most waves fall in the 0.5-1.5m range, ideal for fun, rippable turns on a shortboard or step-up. The combination of reliable offshore winds and consistent, punchy groundswell makes January a dream month for surfers seeking quality over quantity.

Average Spot conditions at Manuel Antonio in January

Swell history for January

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for January

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Manuel Antonio during January. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Manuel Antonio for your next trip in January.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Manuel Antonio for January. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Manuel Antonio.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size