Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Mount Maunganui seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (May - August)

Winter delivers the most consistent and surfable conditions at Mount Maunganui. The Tasman Sea and Southern Ocean fire up with a parade of deep low-pressure systems, generating a steady stream of mid-period swell from the NE quadrant. Ideal offshore winds from the SW through W quadrant blow over 48% of the time, grooming the waves into clean, rippable lines. Average wave heights sit around 1.3m – solid fun-size to head-high – and though periods dip slightly to 8-9 seconds, the combo of reliable swell and favorable wind makes this the go-to window.

Fair Surf Season (March - April & September - November)

During the transitional months, the balance shifts. Swell directions remain favorable from NE to ENE, but the wind becomes a coin flip. The percentage of offshore wind drops to 40-44%, with more frequent onshore NE breezes mixing in. Swell heights average 1.1-1.2m and periods are moderate (7-9s). You'll find plenty of fun sessions, but you need to pick your windows – early mornings often score the cleanest conditions before the seabreeze kicks in.

Low Surf Season (December - February)

Summer brings the highest percentage of onshore NE winds – the same direction as the dominant swell. This creates a classic windswell scenario: waves are often bumped out, choppy, and less user-friendly. Ideal wind drops to 36-39%, and although the swell direction is perfect (NE-ENE), the lack of quality wind limits good surf. Wave heights average 1.1-1.2m with longer periods near 9 seconds – the potential is there, but you've got to chase the rare day when a SW wind change or a tropical low aligns.

Loading chart...

Conditions at Mount Maunganui in March

March: The Autumn Shift Begins

March marks the beginning of the transition toward more consistent quality. Dominant swell directions shift slightly, with ENE and NE still primary (25% and 24% respectively), but a noticeable increase in swell from the N and NNW (10% combined) shows the storm track is starting to activate. Average height remains 1.2m, and periods at 8.9s maintain good shape potential. The big improvement comes from wind: ideal offshore wind jumps to 41% – the highest of the first three months. SW through W winds blow more frequently, especially in the wake of troughs, creating longer clean windows. Mornings are often smooth with a gentle offshore, and the afternoons see lighter seabreezes than summer. This makes March a solid shoulder-season month for rippable waves.

Average Spot conditions at Mount Maunganui in March

Swell history for March

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for March

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Mount Maunganui during March. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Mount Maunganui for your next trip in March.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Mount Maunganui for March. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Mount Maunganui.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size