Palmarcito - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (November - April)

The dry season delivers the most consistent combination of quality swell and reliable offshore winds. From November through April, the North Pacific storm track is active, generating long-period SSW groundswell that wraps into Palmarcito with frequency and power. Simultaneously, high pressure over the southern US and Mexico establishes a strong offshore flow from the N to NNE quadrants, grooming the waves into pristine lines. Wave heights average 1.0–1.2m with periods pushing 12–14s, offering fun, rippable surf on the majority of days. This is the window for peak surf reliability and quality.

Fair Surf Season (May - August)

As the ITCZ begins its northward migration, the trade wind regime becomes more prominent. Swell remains consistent — in fact, average heights climb to 1.3–1.4m and periods peak around 13–14s — but the wind picture grows more variable. Morning offshores from the E to NE quadrants are common as the land heats up, but by afternoon, sea breezes and occasional onshore flow from the S and SSW can deteriorate conditions. The ideal wind percentage drops to 51-62%, yet plenty of clean windows exist, especially in the early hours. This is a solid period for dedicated surfers who know when to paddle out.

Low Surf Season (September - October)

During the transitional months, the patterns become more unsettled. The ITCZ lingers near the region, bringing increased cloud cover, rain, and a higher chance of onshore winds from the SW and SSW. Swell direction starts including a greater westerly component, which can still produce waves but often comes with poor wind alignment. Though the swell size holds around 1.3–1.4m and periods remain in the 13s, the ideal wind percentage dips to 51–59%. Surf is still possible, but it requires more patience to find the right moment when a strong offshore pushes through or a storm track aligns perfectly.

May: Maximum Swell with Trade Wind Trade-offs

May brings the largest average swell of the year at 1.4m and periods of 14.2s, thanks to fully mature Southern Ocean systems. The SSW direction accounts for 87.5% of all swell, and there's a significant jump in the 1.5–2m range (20.3%) and even some 2–2.5m sets (1.9%). However, the wind picture becomes more complex as the trade winds strengthen. Ideal wind percentage drops to 53%, with the NE and E trades providing offshore flow in the mornings but occasionally shifting to SE or S onshore breezes later in the day. Early birds will find firing, powerful waves, but afternoon conditions can deteriorate.