Palmarcito - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (November - April)

The dry season delivers the most consistent combination of quality swell and reliable offshore winds. From November through April, the North Pacific storm track is active, generating long-period SSW groundswell that wraps into Palmarcito with frequency and power. Simultaneously, high pressure over the southern US and Mexico establishes a strong offshore flow from the N to NNE quadrants, grooming the waves into pristine lines. Wave heights average 1.0–1.2m with periods pushing 12–14s, offering fun, rippable surf on the majority of days. This is the window for peak surf reliability and quality.

Fair Surf Season (May - August)

As the ITCZ begins its northward migration, the trade wind regime becomes more prominent. Swell remains consistent — in fact, average heights climb to 1.3–1.4m and periods peak around 13–14s — but the wind picture grows more variable. Morning offshores from the E to NE quadrants are common as the land heats up, but by afternoon, sea breezes and occasional onshore flow from the S and SSW can deteriorate conditions. The ideal wind percentage drops to 51-62%, yet plenty of clean windows exist, especially in the early hours. This is a solid period for dedicated surfers who know when to paddle out.

Low Surf Season (September - October)

During the transitional months, the patterns become more unsettled. The ITCZ lingers near the region, bringing increased cloud cover, rain, and a higher chance of onshore winds from the SW and SSW. Swell direction starts including a greater westerly component, which can still produce waves but often comes with poor wind alignment. Though the swell size holds around 1.3–1.4m and periods remain in the 13s, the ideal wind percentage dips to 51–59%. Surf is still possible, but it requires more patience to find the right moment when a strong offshore pushes through or a storm track aligns perfectly.

September: Transitional Swell and Increasing Westerly Component

September marks a transition as the ITCZ begins its southward retreat. Swell averages 1.4m with a period of 13.0s, but the directional spread widens: while SSW still leads at 73.1%, SW swell jumps to 16.2%, indicating a shift toward more westerly energy from tropical disturbances and distant cyclones. Wind reliability drops to 51% as onshore flow from the S and SW becomes more common. However, mornings can still see clean conditions from the E and NE trades. This month requires careful attention to the forecast – when a strong offshore pushes through, the waves are still powerful and long-period. It's a month of mixed signals, but quality is there for those who wait.