Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Paunch seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (December - March)

During the heart of the North Pacific winter, the Caribbean trades relax and the Pacific storm track shifts, sending consistent groundswell across the equator. For Paunch, this means the average swell height peaks around 1.2-1.4m with periods regularly reaching 8.3s. The offshore wind machine is in full effect, with W, WNW, and NW breezes blowing clean and strong over 90% of the time. While the swell direction remains predominantly from the NE, the combination of solid size and glassy conditions makes for better-than-average sessions. The waves are punchy and rideable, mostly in the fun-sized range, with the occasional bigger set pushing into the solid category.

Fair Surf Season (April - August, November)

As the Pacific storm activity wanes, average swell heights drop to 1.0-1.2m and periods shorten to around 7.5-8.4s. The wind remains mostly offshore from the west, though the percentage of ideal breezes dips slightly. The dominant NE swell persists, but during these months the spot also sees a slight uptick in NNE and ENE contributions. Surf can be fun on the right day, especially when a longer period swell sneaks in. Expect mostly small to fun-sized waves, often groveling on the smaller end, but still plenty of rideable waves for the patient surfer.

Low Surf Season (September - October)

September and October are the quietest months at Paunch. Average swell heights tumble to just 0.7m with periods hovering around 7.0-7.4s. The wind becomes less reliable, with ideal offshore breezes dropping to as low as 61% in October. The swell direction continues to be dominated by NE, but the lack of size and period leaves the spot often flat or choppy. This is the time for micro-sessions on the smallest of swells, or better yet, plan a trip to a more exposed break.

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Conditions at Paunch in July

July: High Pressure Glass

July boasts the highest period of the year at 8.4s with an average height of 1.2m. NE swell is almost all-encompassing at 98.7%, which severely limits wave quality for this east-facing spot. However, the wind is offshore a whopping 93% of the time, dominated by NW (32.7%) and WNW (28.7%). The light to moderate winds create near-perfect surface conditions. The waves are punchy and mainly in the 1-1.5m fun range (56.4%), but the angle means you'll get shorter, steeper shoulders. Good for a quick slide, but don't expect epic lines.

Average Spot conditions at Paunch in July

Swell history for July

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for July

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Paunch during July. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Paunch for your next trip in July.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Paunch for July. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Paunch.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size