Pennington Bay - surf spot statistics

Pennington Bay in Australia is a consistent surf spot with year-round swell activity, thanks to its high percentage of ground swell dominance (80%–94% across all months). The best conditions for surfers typically occur from March to September, when ground swell probabilities peak above 90%, and the mean swell size increases slightly to 1.5m–1.7m. However, wind conditions are often challenging, with bad (onshore or cross-shore) winds prevailing 75%–90% of the time throughout the year. The most favorable wind windows appear in the autumn and winter months (April–September), when good wind probabilities reach 22%–25%, slightly improving wave quality. Despite the persistent wind issues, the swell consistency and size make late autumn (May) and winter (June–August) the most promising periods for surfers, especially those who prioritize clean, powerful waves and are willing to take advantage of occasional offshore wind days. The summer months (December–February) see marginally smaller swells (1.4m–1.5m) and the worst wind conditions, making them less ideal for surfing unless you're willing to tolerate choppier waves. Overall, Pennington Bay is a reliable year-round surf destination, but the best balance between swell size and cleaner wind conditions occurs from May to September.

December at Pennington Bay offers variable but generally surfable conditions, with a predominant southerly swell direction delivering the most consistent waves. The average swell height is 1.4m, backed by a solid 11.9s period, which ensures quality and power, particularly when the swell originates from the S to SSE directions—where the bulk of waves over 1m are concentrated (approx. 70% of swell in the 1-2.5m range). However, wind conditions are less favorable, with only 12% of days providing ideal offshore or light cross-shore winds (typically from the NW quadrant). The predominant winds are S to SE at 10-30kph, which can create chop or onshore slop, especially during stronger gusts. Swell windows are narrow, with southerly energy being the primary driver of rideable waves, while northerly or westerly swells are virtually absent. For surfers, the key is timing sessions around wind shifts, as the swell energy is reliable but wind alignment is the limiting factor. Mid-sized days (1.5-2m) offer the best performance window, balancing power and manageability. Bigger sets (2.5m+) are rare (under 5% of days) and require precise wind conditions. A patience game, but rewarding when the elements align.