Pennington Bay - surf spot statistics

Pennington Bay in Australia is a consistent surf spot with year-round swell activity, thanks to its high percentage of ground swell dominance (80%–94% across all months). The best conditions for surfers typically occur from March to September, when ground swell probabilities peak above 90%, and the mean swell size increases slightly to 1.5m–1.7m. However, wind conditions are often challenging, with bad (onshore or cross-shore) winds prevailing 75%–90% of the time throughout the year. The most favorable wind windows appear in the autumn and winter months (April–September), when good wind probabilities reach 22%–25%, slightly improving wave quality. Despite the persistent wind issues, the swell consistency and size make late autumn (May) and winter (June–August) the most promising periods for surfers, especially those who prioritize clean, powerful waves and are willing to take advantage of occasional offshore wind days. The summer months (December–February) see marginally smaller swells (1.4m–1.5m) and the worst wind conditions, making them less ideal for surfing unless you're willing to tolerate choppier waves. Overall, Pennington Bay is a reliable year-round surf destination, but the best balance between swell size and cleaner wind conditions occurs from May to September.

Pennington Bay in September offers a fairly consistent swell with an average height of 1.7m and a solid period of 13.7s, suggesting well-formed and powerful waves. The majority of the swell comes from the S and SSW directions, with a significant portion (21.44%) in the 1-1.5m range and even larger contributions (19.21%) in the 1.5-2m range, meaning surfers can expect clean, mid-sized waves with good energy. The swell distribution indicates that bigger waves (2m+) occur about 10-15% of the time, mostly from the S and SSW, providing occasional powerful sets for advanced riders. Wind conditions are less favorable, with only 23% of the time being ideal for surfing—likely when winds are light or offshore. The predominant winds come from the W, WSW, and SW, often blowing at 10-30kph, which can create chop or side-shore conditions. Stronger winds (20-40kph) occur frequently, potentially messing up wave faces. Surfers should aim for early sessions or days with lighter winds for cleaner conditions. Overall, September delivers decent swell but requires patience for optimal wind alignment.