Surf forecastSpot statisticsHistorical report

Tonel seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (October - March)

The North Atlantic roars to life during these months, delivering consistent, powerful swell to Tonel. Average wave heights range from 1.8m to 2.4m with periods often exceeding 12 seconds, bringing long-period, heavy surf. Ideal offshore wind conditions—typically from the northeast through southeast—occur 20-28% of the time, offering frequent windows of clean, glassy waves. The combination of strong extratropical cyclones and favorable pressure gradients makes this the prime window for serious surf.

Fair Surf Season (April & September)

These transition months see a noticeable drop in average swell size (1.5-1.9m) and period (10-11s), but still provide a decent number of rideable days. Ideal wind frequencies hover around 17-20%, and while cold fronts are less frequent, occasional NW swells can still produce solid, clean surf when the wind aligns from the eastern quadrants.

Low Surf Season (May - August)

Summer settles in with persistent small, short-period swell averaging 1.4-1.6m and periods dropping to 8-10s. Ideal wind percentages fall below 13%, and the dominant NW-NNW swell directions are often accompanied by onshore winds that chop up the waves. This is the time for groveling gear and waiting for rare upswings in swell energy. Still, early mornings with light east winds can yield fun, clean waves.

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Conditions at Tonel in September

September: Resurgence Begins

September signals a clear shift: swell height rises to 1.5m with period 10.4s. NW swells (47.1%) still dominate, but the average period increase indicates returning groundswell energy. Ideal wind jumps to 20% as the first cold fronts sweep south. N and NE winds become more reliable (N at 18.6%), offering clean offshore conditions. This month bridges the summer lull and the winter power, delivering increasingly consistent, quality surf.

Average Spot conditions at Tonel in September

Swell history for September

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for September

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Tonel during September. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Tonel for your next trip in September.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Tonel for September. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Tonel.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size